Vietnam's coffee and rice exports slow as global supply grows and prices fall

Slumping prices for agricultural commodities on the market dragged down the value of Vietnam's coffee and rice exports in the first quarter, amid rising supply.

Coffee exports: higher volume, lower value

In Q1, Vietnam exported about 590,500 tons of coffee, earning about $2.75 billion. This represented a 12.5% increase in volume but a 7.1% decline in value versus the same period last year.

The average export price was about $4,657 per ton, down 17.6%. In the domestic market, Robusta coffee prices last week fell to around 85,000–86,000 VND per kg, about 35% lower than a year ago and the lowest in three years.

Rice exports: flat volume, weaker prices

A similar trend appeared in rice. Exports in the first three months reached about 2.3 million tons, worth about $1.11 billion—basically flat in volume but down 7.8% in value. The average export price was about $480 per ton, down 8%, including fragrant and high-quality rice varieties.

Meanwhile, the prevailing price for 5% broken rice hovered around $360–365 per ton, indicating that the real price level remains low.

Cause: global surplus pressure and rising supply expectations

Behind the price declines is increasingly clear surplus pressure in the global market.

For coffee, 2026 production is forecast to exceed demand by about 10 million bags as major producers harvest simultaneously. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, is preparing to start the harvest from mid-year with output expected to rise sharply. At the same time, inventories on international exchanges are rising, prompting roasters to curb purchases.

Mr. Nguyễn Nam Hải, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cacao Association (Vicofa), said the market is reacting to expectations of a rapid supply increase, while demand has yet to show corresponding improvement. He also noted that financial and geopolitical factors are driving more pronounced price swings as speculative money exits the market after a period of hot gains.

Development: costs and trading activity weigh on exports

Price pressures are not only driven by supply-demand dynamics but also spreading to trading activity. Freight and input costs remain high, making firms more cautious in transactions. Some units reported freight rates to Europe doubling, leading them to curb exports and weakening domestic purchasing demand.

Rice: oversupply, weak demand, and more competition

According to the Vietnam Food Association, rice prices declined mainly due to global oversupply while demand remained weak. Large producing countries have had good harvests, and some lifting of export restrictions has contributed to an oversupplied market that is more competitive.

Additionally, major Asian import markets tend to reduce purchases or delay imports, adding pressure on price levels.

Data and outlook: USDA and FAO projections

USDA data for the 2025–2026 marketing year indicates the global rice market remains well supplied as production stays high in major producing countries. This increases export competition and puts downward pressure on prices.

International organizations show a similar trend. FAO forecasts global rice production for the 2025–2026 crop year could reach about 563.4 million tons, up 2.1% and setting a new record.

Impact and analysis: limited room for export value growth

In practice, some markets have increased purchases—China has stepped up buying—but the increases are not enough to offset the downward price trend. The Philippines remains the largest buyer, accounting for more than half of the market share, though import prices are no longer as high as before.

In the near term, the outlook for both rice and coffee remains highly dependent on global supply-demand developments. For rice, price levels are likely to stay subdued if supply remains ample. For coffee, supply from Brazil and Indonesia is expected to continue pressuring prices in Q2, while demand in the EU and the US is expected to recover slowly. Weather factors, particularly the risk of El Niño returning, could be a major variable with more pronounced impacts later in the year.

As average export prices for both coffee and rice fall, experts said growth in export value in the coming period will depend more on production, limiting the room to improve export values.