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Vietnam’s economy, measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), is estimated by the General Statistics Office (GSO) to reach about 1.885 trillion USD in 2025. IMF estimates put Thailand’s PPP-based GDP for 2025 at about 1.881 trillion USD, implying Vietnam has surpassed Thailand by roughly 4 billion USD in PPP terms.
The GSO said it built scenario forecasts to assess when Vietnam would overtake Thailand in both PPP terms and in current dollar terms. The scenarios rely on three key assumptions:
Under these assumptions, Vietnam’s PPP-based GDP for 2026 is forecast to reach about 2.099 trillion USD, which is higher by about 135 billion USD than Thailand’s estimated 1.964 trillion USD. The GSO said this suggests there is a possibility for Vietnam to overtake and maintain a certain distance from Thailand in PPP terms from 2026.
Thailand faces multiple challenges. For 2026, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Thailand’s economic growth at about 1.8%, the slowest in ASEAN. The ADB links the slowdown to weak global demand, higher energy costs, and softer export momentum.
Other forecasts point to similar trends: the World Bank projects around 1.6% growth, while the Thai central bank sees about 1.5%, indicating a clear deceleration.
The ADB attributes the slowdown to both external and internal factors. It notes that energy prices have been lifted by Middle East conflicts and global trade disruptions, which directly affect exports and tourism—two pillars of Thailand’s economy.
Structural issues also weigh on performance, including low productivity, limited domestic value-added in exports, and relatively low technology adoption. On the domestic side, household consumption is softening and fiscal policy is becoming more prudent, putting pressure on demand. The World Bank adds that growth in 2026 is dampened by tight finances and weaker domestic demand.
In addition, the World Bank notes that exports—after a period of strength—are projected to slow, while tourism has not yet fully recovered.
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