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The VN-Index is hovering around the prior peak zone of 1,900–1,920 points, with multiple securities firms warning that volatility and short-term fluctuations are likely to persist as the market tests this area.
On May 11, the VN-Index fell 19.87 points, or 1.04%, to close at 1,895.5 points. The HNX-Index rose 1.57 points, or 0.64%, to 248.06 points.
BVSC said that after a period of strong gains and the establishment of a new high, pressure for volatility and corrections has begun to appear. Despite this, BVSC expects the index to remain elevated, supported by rotational flows from large-cap stocks.
Several firms also pointed to profit-taking after the index topped its previous high. BSC noted that market breadth tilted negative, with 15 of 18 sectors down, and that profit-taking pressure emerged following the move above the prior peak.
BVSC expects the VN-Index to transition into range-bound movement around 1,900 points. It also highlighted that with sector dispersion, speculative capital may rotate more actively across stock groups as market dominance wanes.
VCBS similarly described the index as moving around the old peak of 1,900–1,920, with a short-term outlook focused on consolidation around 1,900. SSI added that the market is still in a high-price region around 1,920, while noting that the rally has not yet shown clear signs of exhaustion.
BSC reported that the biggest decliners were Insurance, Tourism & Entertainment, and Information Technology. On the upside, Oil & Gas, Construction & Materials, and Industrials posted positive sessions.
On foreign flows, BSC said the market was net sold on HSX and UPCOM, while foreign investors were net buyers on HNX.
Multiple firms linked selling pressure mainly to VinGroup. SHS said VinGroup’s market capitalization is around $110 billion, roughly equivalent to the combined capitalization of 28 banks, and that high valuations could contribute to near-term selling pressure in this group. TVS also said selling pressure mainly comes from VinGroup, while noting renewed buying toward the end of the session in VIC and VHM.
BVSC advised investors to reduce cash-to-equity exposure and actively manage risk for short-term positions, including taking partial profits when prices reach expected returns or breach lower trailing stops. It also recommended prioritizing T+ trading when the market hovers near the top, focusing on stocks with modest moves and consolidation at support levels.
BSC recommended trading cautiously in anticipation of further corrections.
YSVN suggested a short-term strategy of holding 60% in stocks and 40% in cash for under one month, while selectively buying on the next dip and prioritizing Transport, Food & Beverage, Retail, and Real Estate.
TVS said investors should maintain reasonable positions and consider partial profit-taking near the 1,940–1,950 target, while monitoring the 1,870 level for potential trend deterioration.
In sum, the consensus view is that the VN-Index may need additional time to consolidate and absorb near-term selling pressure before stronger momentum returns.
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