Weekly Outlook for 6-10 April: Signals from FTSE in Focus

The VN-Index closed the week at 1,684.04 points, up slightly by 11 points (+0.57%). Liquidity remained stable, while sentiment stayed cautious. Shinhan Vietnam (SSV) said the market’s main trend is sideways within the 1,600-1,750 range, with investors advised to deploy at low weights and increase only if the index breaks clearly above 1,750 with supporting information.

Market signals and technical levels

Phú Hưng Securities (PHS) said the VN-Index is signaling weakness as a Shooting Star forms and the index is nearing the filling of the previous upside gap. Low liquidity suggests capital is on the sidelines. PHS noted that most stocks are testing near-term supports and entering a stock-picking phase: stocks with solid bases may lead, while those breaking supports could continue to fall.

PHS highlighted resistance near 1,750 and support at 1,660. The strategy should shift to per-stock portfolio management: if supports hold, investors can hold; if not, they should rebalance decisively and avoid averaging down. Fresh buying should wait for a clear rebound.

VPBank Securities (VPBankS) said the VN-Index is testing the 1,660-1,675 support zone (MA10 and MA20). The main scenario is continued sideways trading below 1,700 to allow capital reallocation, especially as Q1 earnings season approaches. VPBankS added that the index may retest 1,660 before rebounding.

Thien Viet Securities (TVS) still targets a recovery around 1,730-1,740, but selling pressure may persist. TVS said the market could retest the MA200 near 1,660 before moving up. TVS also pointed to FTSE Russell’s March review as a potential supporting factor for the market’s upgrade progress.

For Tien Phong Securities (TPS), the current decline is mainly technical due to weak liquidity. TPS said the index has broken the downtrend, but liquidity is not strong enough, so the trend remains tilted toward a technical rebound. TPS expects consolidation in the 1,665-1,740 range after the index approaches 1,740, and recommended short-term trading with moderate risk—buy near supports and sell near resistances—while holding about 50% cash. If 1,665 breaks, TPS advised limiting bottom-fishing.

Chung khoan Vietcombank (VCBS) said the VN-Index remains around the 1,680 support (MA20). VCBS expects the index to stay within 1,680-1,750, with alternating gains and losses. Investors should maintain exposure to range-bound stocks with solid supports and use pullbacks to deploy into stocks with Q1 earnings potential, including retail and banks.

Sector focus and cash-flow restructuring

Across the outlooks, priority groups include infrastructure spending, banks, and construction materials. Investors were also advised to focus on companies with low debt ratios as interest rates are expected to rise. Notable sectors mentioned were real estate, banks, electricity, and insurance.

VPBankS described the market as a sideways phase that supports cash-flow restructuring ahead of Q1 earnings. VikkiBank similarly characterized the market as a balance-seeking phase, noting that demand has not strengthened.

Market breadth, foreign flows, and weekly performance

BSC said the VN-Index fell nearly 11 points in the latest session to 1,684.04. Market breadth leaned negative, with 15 of 18 sectors down, led by industrials, retail, and basic resources; insurance was among the few green sectors. BSC also reported foreign investors posted a net outflow of around 1.5 trillion dong on HOSE.

Asean Securities added that the VN-Index formed a green weekly candle with unchanged liquidity, signaling improved sentiment. It said the index could rebound near term as it responds to medium-term support, with nearby support at 1,600 and resistance at 1,750.

Outlook and recommended approach

Overall, securities firms described the market as still in a bottom-finding or balance-seeking phase, with short-term recovery but continued volatility. The common guidance was to stay cautious, monitor for clearer signals—especially regarding market upgrading—and use dips for gradual deployment rather than broad index chasing.

Several firms suggested favoring sectors showing short-term strength, including real estate, banks, securities, and retail, while maintaining balanced exposure. As the VN-Index approaches key resistance areas (around 1,750), investors were advised to consider partial profit-taking and to manage risk through per-stock portfolio adjustments.