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Global gold prices saw a volatile session on May 12, with an intraday range approaching $140 per ounce. Data cited from Muavangbac.vn showed SPDR Gold Trust—the world’s largest gold fund—recorded net purchases of 2 tonnes on May 12, extending a four-session buying streak after more than a dozen sessions of net selling. The fund currently holds over 1,038 tonnes of gold.
Gold prices swung during the day. Spot gold traded as high as about $4,774 per ounce and fell to around $4,638 per ounce before settling near $4,715 per ounce.
Investors favored the U.S. dollar as a safe haven amid rising oil prices and unresolved prospects for a deal between Washington and Tehran. The Dollar Index rose 0.34% to close at 98.29.
The session’s low followed the release of U.S. CPI data from the U.S. Labor Department, showing inflation accelerating in the world’s largest economy. April CPI rose 3.8% year over year, the highest since May 2023 and above analysts’ forecasts by 0.1 percentage point.
With inflation pressures alongside a robust labor market, the data suggests the Federal Reserve may find it harder to cut interest rates.
Despite gold being down about 12% since the Iran conflict began, ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey said the recent selling appears to reflect macroeconomic spillovers from the oil shock rather than a reduced safe-haven role for gold.
Manthey said: “The bullish path depends on energy prices coming down, inflation cooling, and the Fed cutting rates later this year. Central bank purchases and ETF inflows are likely to support gold further.”
ING currently projects gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year. Manthey added that the main downside risk is a breakdown in peace talks that keeps energy prices high and leads the Fed to maintain policy through year-end.
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