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XRP continues to struggle below the 100-period EMA near $1.42, a level that has historically triggered sharp corrections. Past rejections at this resistance led to declines of over 40% and 50%, reinforcing bearish technical signals. Immediate downside targets sit near the 200-period EMA around $1.00, with broader support between $0.80 and $1.00.
XRP is flashing renewed downside risk as it fails to reclaim a key distribution zone, with sentiment pressured by Donald Trump’s inconsistent messaging on the fragile US–Iran ceasefire, which continues to inject volatility into global markets.
As of Sunday, April 20, XRP was struggling to secure a close above its 100-period exponential moving average (100-period EMA, the purple wave) on the two-week chart.
That level has repeatedly acted as a firm resistance zone during past rebound attempts. In September 2022, for example, XRP failed to break above the same EMA before sliding 43.60%. A similar rejection in February 2020 preceded a steeper 58.75% decline.
In both cases, the sell-off eventually drove price back toward XRP’s multimonth ascending trendline support, which later served as the cycle bottom.
The setup now looks broadly similar. XRP’s inability to reclaim the 100-period EMA near $1.422 raises the risk of a deeper pullback toward its next major support at the 200-period EMA, around $1.00.
If historical price action repeats, the broader downtrend may begin to exhaust near the long-term ascending trendline support, which currently comes in around the $0.80–$1.00 region.
XRP heads into the new week with geopolitical tensions back in focus after fresh friction around the Strait of Hormuz rattled sentiment across global markets. The development threatens to undermine the same risk-on backdrop that helped lift equities and crypto last week.
Iran warned over the weekend that any vessel entering the waterway “under any pretext” would be treated as violating the ceasefire, while reports of Revolutionary Guard action against commercial ships added to the tension.
Tehran has also reportedly backed away from a second round of US-Iran talks as long as the US naval blockade remains in place.
For XRP, that matters because a renewed oil shock could reinforce inflation fears and reduce expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing, a combination that typically weighs on speculative assets.
Trump’s shifting rhetoric added to the uncertainty. After signaling on Friday that a deal was close, he struck a far more aggressive tone by Sunday, threatening major retaliation if talks fail and claiming US forces had stopped an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.
In other words, XRP is struggling at a historically important resistance level right when the macro backdrop turns hostile again, increasing the risk that a technical rejection could snowball into a deeper pullback.
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