XRP price reversal odds rise as XRP hits key EMA at $1.39

XRP has fallen by nearly 4% over the past 24 hours after strong selling emerged when the token hit a key technical resistance at $1.39.

Trading volumes remain relatively low at $2.5 billion, suggesting the recent rally that pushed XRP to these levels was supported by thin liquidity.

Rotation to Bitcoin and Ethereum as broader demand softens

In bear-market conditions, market participants often rotate toward the two largest crypto assets—Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)—and reduce exposure to other tokens.

On a year-to-date basis, XRP’s losses are described as similar to ETH’s, but BTC has outperformed XRP by nearly 10%. The article cites a milder BTC loss of 18% versus XRP’s 28% retreat.

ETF inflows dry up

Net inflows to XRP-linked ETFs have also slowed in recent weeks. Data from SoSoValue shows these vehicles recorded $0 in inflows on 5 of the past 9 days.

The article attributes the lack of ETF demand to deteriorating market conditions and notes that even with some stabilization in the situation in Iran and oil prices, XRP may not benefit immediately.

Whale activity points to potential selling pressure

On-chain data from Santiment indicates that whales were preparing to sell once XRP moved higher.

According to Santiment, net inflows to exchanges rose by more than 300% since April started. This metric tracks a moving average of XRP tokens moving from cold storage to exchanges. The article notes that exchange inflows are particularly relevant in bear markets because rapid increases can signal positioning by large holders to sell.

Technical picture: rejection near $1.39 and focus on $1.33

The sell-off aligns with the 4-hour chart, where XRP declined after hitting the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) in that timeframe.

Whales reportedly began selling at $1.39, leading XRP to retest support at $1.33, a level that has cushioned prior pullbacks.

The article states that XRP needs to hold above $1.33 to avoid a stronger decline toward $1.20. It also says this “reversion to the mean” has occurred three times in the past two and a half months, with the stronger downticks appearing in mid-February and March.

It further notes that if the pattern repeats, a stronger decline could occur over the next six days following the rejection of the resistance.

Momentum indicators are also turning bearish: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below its 14-period moving average, which the article interprets as accelerating bearish momentum.

Key levels and near-term risk

Looking ahead, the $1.30 support level is highlighted as the key area to watch. The article says that if XRP breaks below $1.30, the odds of a move down to $1.20 would be high—implying roughly 10% downside risk from current levels.

On the hourly chart, a sell signal appeared after the rejection of the $1.39 area, and earlier candles left large upper wicks, indicating strong selling at that level.

Finally, the article reports early signs of consolidation around $1.33, but says confirmation of the next direction may depend on the start of the American session.