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AI is reshaping China’s trade outlook, with imports forecast to grow faster than exports for the first time since 2021. That shift suggests China’s trade surplus may not widen as much as it did after reaching a record level in the previous year.
In a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists conducted this month, the median forecast calls for China’s 2026 imports to rise 5%. That is the highest projection in five years and more than double the median estimate from a similar survey last month, marking a reversal after four years in which imports stagnated or declined.
Economists attribute the change largely to Chinese firms increasing purchases of advanced chips used to build AI infrastructure.
Exports are also expected to pick up, with the median forecast rising from 3.6% previously to 4.9%. Even so, because imports are projected to increase more strongly, China’s 2026 goods-trade surplus may only edge above the $1.2 trillion level recorded in 2025 after two years of solid gains.
China has faced mounting pressure from trading partners as its goods have flooded many markets since the Covid-19 pandemic. In response, the government has pledged to open the domestic market to imports more widely and to adjust policies, including eliminating export subsidies for certain items such as solar panels.
However, economists say the main driver of import growth is not policy alone. Demand for advanced AI-related technologies—especially advanced chips—is increasing China’s reliance on imports, while domestic consumption remains weak and continues to restrain overall demand.
“China’s government has realized that an excessively large trade surplus is not sustainable,” said Serena Zhou, senior China economist at Mizuho Securities, in an interview with Bloomberg.
Zhou projects imports could rise 7.5% this year, partly due to policy adjustments, but said exports will remain important for growth given that domestic demand has not clearly recovered.
“To date, I have not seen domestic demand clearly rebound,” Zhou said.
The outlook is also being revised upward in a synchronized way by economists after a quarter of strong momentum, despite a global energy shock from the Iran conflict. In the first quarter of 2026, China’s imports rose 23% year on year while exports increased 15%.
Industrial production and investment are accelerating, but consumer demand remains weak, contributing to an imbalanced economy. The IMF has noted that this condition also contributes to global trade imbalances.
Imports surged in March, driven mainly by a wave of AI investment globally and the resulting lift in demand for chips and other advanced manufacturing equipment. Price effects are also playing a role: Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that the value of integrated circuits China imported in March rose 54% year on year, accounting for nearly one-third of the total rise in import value, while the volume of IC imports rose 14%, indicating a significant contribution from higher prices.
Global AI spending is forecast to reach $2.5 trillion this year. Over the past year, this trend has become a major driver of Asia’s trade.
Economists at Standard Chartered say China was the world’s largest supplier of AI-related goods last year, but it still runs net imports of some key technologies, especially advanced chips. Taiwan and South Korea are the two largest sources of AI-related goods for China, and both have reported robust exports to China in recent months.
Beyond AI, other factors are supporting China’s imports. Over the past year, the yuan has risen almost 7% against the dollar, improving households’ and firms’ purchasing power for imported goods. Higher metal prices have also lifted the value of imports of copper and aluminum products.
So far, global oil prices have had limited impact on China’s imports. March data showed only a modest decline in crude purchases. The trend could change if trade through the Hormuz Strait continues to slow: Pantheon Macroeconomics expects China’s oil and gas imports to fall by 14% and 18% in April versus March.
On the export side, China’s outlook is supported by unexpected spillovers from the Iran conflict. Global demand for green-energy products is helping Chinese firms, including automakers, expand abroad, and China’s supply chains are viewed as more resilient to energy shocks than those of many other economies.
“China’s economy has shown stronger resilience than many Asian peers to supply shocks from the Iran conflict. Global demand for electric vehicles and solar panels has risen, further strengthening China’s advantages, given its firms’ dominance in these two areas,” said Erica Tay, economist at Maybank Securities.
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