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Crypto analyst Tony Research says Bitcoin is currently in a bearish “sell zone,” pointing to patterns from the asset’s four-year cycle and technical levels on the weekly chart.
Research analyzed Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and cited the following cycle durations: Cycle 1 (2015-2018) at 1,431 days; Cycle 2 (2019-2022) at 1,421 days; and Cycle 3 (2023-2026) at about 1,390 days.
He also described a recurring sequence visible through the Gaussian Channel on the weekly chart: a bear-market bottom, a rally to new highs, and then a distribution phase that precedes a major drawdown. The article further notes that Bitcoin formed bull-market tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, with each cycle running roughly four years from peak to peak.
The latest cycle is described as having peaked on October 6, 2025, at just above $126,000. In the current trading range of $60,000 to $76,000, the analyst characterizes the market as showing indecision, which he says could point to a deeper correction. He argues that this range may represent the final stage before a larger drop.
According to the article, a signal for a major reversal appears when Bitcoin crosses the Gaussian Channel’s upper band, which is described as marking the start of a terminal distribution phase.
The piece also references the MA200 moving average. It states that when BTC remains above the MA200 for an extended period, the advised strategy is to sell after long exposure. Conversely, when price is below MA200, accumulation is favored. Since Bitcoin has spent months above MA200, the article suggests the market may not be in a strong accumulation phase at present.
Overall, the analysis presented by Bitcoinist frames the current $60,000 to $76,000 range as consistent with a late-stage distribution setup, with the potential for a larger decline if the bearish sell-zone thesis plays out.
Editorial note: Bitcoinist highlights rigorous sourcing and editorial standards, citing its editorial process.
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