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Bitcoin may still be in a bear phase, with analyst Benjamin Cowen estimating only a 25% probability that the market has already bottomed.
In an Apr. 13 podcast, Cowen said that even a rally toward $80,000 would not confirm a cycle bottom. He argued that bear markets can be deceptive, often including extended upward moves before sharp declines that catch both bulls and bears off guard.
Based on historical patterns, Cowen believes a more reliable bottom could form in the $30,000–$50,000 range, reflecting prior drawdowns from peak levels.
He also pointed to Bitcoin’s current low-volatility, range-bound behavior as typical of mid-cycle conditions, when price consolidates for months before a larger move. Cowen expects volatility to return later in the year, potentially including a breakdown below key levels such as $60,000 before a true bottom is established.
Cowen linked Bitcoin’s performance to the broader economic cycle, noting that late-stage environments often involve rising oil prices, tighter liquidity, and risk-off sentiment. In those conditions, capital may rotate away from high-risk assets such as crypto and toward sectors including energy, commodities, and industrials, which could lead Bitcoin to underperform traditional assets during this phase.
Despite his short-term bearish stance, Cowen remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin. However, he said the market likely needs a prolonged “time-based capitulation” phase before the next major uptrend begins.
He also suggested that new all-time highs are unlikely in the near term and may only occur in the next cycle, potentially between 2027 and 2029.

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