Bitcoin Could Break Above $76,000 This Year if Ethereum Clears $2,400, Says Macro Investor

Bitcoin's Next Big Breakout May Start At $76,000, Says Veteran Macro Investor The Correlation Break Bitcoin traded in lockstep with software stocks for five years, but that correlation broke this week. Software stocks continued to plunge while Bitcoin held steady, Visser told The Pomp Podcast. Software names are getting destroyed by AI disruption. Salesforce, Palantir, and Adobe all posted new lows this week as AI agents make coding free and ubiquitous. Bitcoin, however, has no competitor and cannot be disrupted by AI because it’s not a business with fundamentals. The weekly MACD is crossing this week, providing a technical signal. Combined with the correlation break, Visser says the setup looks compelling. The $76,000 Level Visser gives investors a specific level to watch: Bitcoin above $76,000 and Ethereum above $2,400 simultaneously. “I believe that is the beginning of a move that will be sustainable this year because I don’t think we’re going to have a recession,” Visser said. “I think inflation is going to stay elevated and I think people are going to need to find something that is making money in a world where the S&P is not moving anywhere,” he added. The Fed Funds Analysis Visser analyzed Bitcoin returns across different Fed policy environments. Over 100% of Bitcoin’s returns since 2010 occurred when the Fed was either on hold or cutting combined with negative real yields. Three-month rates currently sit at 3.66% while headline inflation stands at 3.30%, leaving real yields at just 40 basis points positive. Next month’s CPI print will likely push headline inflation above the 3-month rate, creating negative real yields for the first time in months. “That’s your catalyst,” Visser said. “We’ll be entering the regime of the Fed on hold with inflation above yields, so negative real yields.” The Scarcity Thesis Meanwhile, Visser argues Bitcoin is the only asset built on code that’s safe from AI destruction. Growth assets are struggling, software is collapsing, and even hyperscalers face margin compression. “People are still going to need to make returns over the course of the next decade,” Visser said. “The only thing that I can say with certainty is people are still going to need to in their mind make more money in the course of the next 5 years.” He’s moving money out of money markets into Bitcoin, reducing some semiconductor positions to fund the allocation. Moreover, the world is more unstable than it was on February 27, Visser noted. Energy hoarding is happening globally, and the U.S. dollar faces pressure as countries look for alternatives.