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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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Bitcoin was trading above $60,000 by April 19, with the Polymarket contract showing 99.6% YES, supported by a two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and falling oil prices that have helped maintain risk appetite.
Liquidity in the Bitcoin markets remains solid, with $40,599 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The order book indicates that $64,698 is needed to shift the odds by 5 points, suggesting the market can absorb large trades without significant price movement.
The largest move in the last 24 hours was a decline from 100% to 99.6%, which appears consistent with minor profit-taking. For reference, the Bitcoin price for the April 18 contract trades at 99.2% YES.
Easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices have historically benefited risk assets such as Bitcoin. Iran is preparing for a second round of talks, and President Trump has hinted at resuming negotiations in Pakistan.
At 99.6¢ for a YES share, the payout is viewed as near-certain, with the market pricing in almost no downside risk to Bitcoin staying above $60,000 through April 19.
Potential announcements from President Trump regarding the resumption of talks, or changes in Iran’s negotiation stance, could move these contracts. A breakdown in the ceasefire or a spike in oil prices would be the main catalysts for downside movement at this point.

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