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Bitcoin has gained more than 12% since late February amid recent geopolitical tensions, even as global markets grappled with uncertainty. However, investors are still weighing a key question: whether Bitcoin has already bottomed or whether further downside could follow.
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, argues that Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns can help frame the timing of a bottom. He says market tops have repeatedly occurred within about one week of prior cycle peaks, while bottoms have tended to arrive roughly one year later.
Under this framework, Cowen identifies October 2026 as the most likely bottom for the current cycle. He also notes that an earlier bottom around May remains possible, but would likely require a capitulation event far more severe than what midterm years typically produce. Cowen adds that if Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns remain within the standard deviation band of prior midterm years, there is no reason to abandon the October thesis.
Other analysts broadly align with a late-2026 bottom scenario. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson says the current cycle peaked 534 days after the April 2024 halving, which he describes as the shortest peak timeline yet. Using a decaying cycle pattern, Wedson’s models suggest a bottom between late September and early October 2026.
CryptoQuant’s data also supports a bottom window spanning June through December 2026, with September through November carrying the highest probability.
One notable point raised by Cowen is that the current cycle’s top did not follow the same sentiment-driven pattern seen in 2017 and 2021. Instead, he says the top arrived amid widespread investor apathy. As a result, the typical post-peak rotation into altcoins did not materialize—a dynamic last seen in 2019.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $73,831, still more than 40% below its all-time high near $126,000. Based on the cycle analysis presented by these commentators, caution may still be warranted before a confirmed bottom emerges.
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