Bitcoin price holds between $68,000 and $75,000 as Iran ceasefire expires; CLARITY Act markup and FOMC meeting loom

Bitcoin is trading in a tight range between $68,000 support and $75,000 resistance as it heads into what the article describes as the most consequential two-week window of 2026. Three catalysts are scheduled back to back: the Iran ceasefire expiry on April 22, the CLARITY Act Senate markup targeted for late April, and the FOMC meeting on April 28 and 29.

Key levels and what they signal

According to 24/7 Wall St., $68,000 is the key level to watch. Bitcoin has held above it through both the Islamabad talks collapse and Monday’s blockade announcement, suggesting the market may have already priced in near-term bad news. However, if oil climbs past $110, analysts project bitcoin could fall to $65,000.

If the ceasefire extends or new talks are announced before April 22, bitcoin could move back toward the $75,000 to $80,000 area, driven by the same relief dynamic that supported the original ceasefire rally. By contrast, a resumption of full hostilities with no diplomatic off-ramp is described as the scenario most likely to break the $68,000 floor.

FOMC adds pressure as rate-cut expectations fade

The April 28–29 FOMC meeting is expected to influence bitcoin through macro conditions. With inflation running above 3% and oil still elevated above $100, the article says Fed rate cut expectations have been effectively removed from the near-term calendar. That reduces a macro tailwind that historically supports bitcoin rallies.

Sentiment and on-chain data: fear persists, but whales buy

The article notes that bitcoin has spent 46 consecutive days in “extreme fear” territory, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading between 8 and 12. Despite the bleak sentiment, whale wallets reportedly accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days—described as the largest sustained buying spree since 2013.

At the same time, exchange reserves are reported at 2.21 million BTC, the lowest level since December 2017. The article interprets these on-chain signals as long-term holders absorbing selling from retail and tax-driven exits rather than liquidating.

“$68,000: This is the line in the sand.”

How the three April catalysts could play out together

The article frames the period from April 22 to April 29 as a sequence where outcomes can reinforce each other. If the ceasefire extends and oil drops toward $90, rate cut expectations could improve going into the FOMC meeting, providing a macro tailwind. In that same scenario, the CLARITY Act Senate markup could add a crypto-specific catalyst.

24/7 Wall St. projects that if all three resolve favorably in sequence, bitcoin could move toward $75,000 to $80,000 by the end of April. The article emphasizes that this would require multiple developments to go right simultaneously.

Why the ceasefire expiry is the first domino

The Islamabad talks lasted 21 hours and ended without agreement on two core issues: Iran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The article says Iran’s parliament speaker returned home stating Iran would not bow to threats. With the US Navy blockading Iranian ports, the conditions for a ceasefire extension are described as harder to meet than before the weekend.

24/7 Wall St. also notes that “tax selling ahead of April 15 and uncertainty around the war will keep overriding Bitcoin’s rally attempts” in the near term.

If $68,000 breaks: downside scenario

As reported in the article, the Fear and Greed Index has been in extreme fear for 46 consecutive days, and the market is described as structurally fragile with leveraged positions still present. It adds that a break below $68,000 would likely trigger liquidations from short-term holders who bought the ceasefire rally.

Analysts cited in the article project a move toward $65,000 if the war resumes and oil crosses $110.