Bitcoin Reclaims $74K as Spot ETF Demand Clashes With BTC Miner Sell Pressure

Bitcoin rallied above $74,000 after the Monday stock market close, but derivatives data suggest some traders remain bearish. The move came as the S&P 500 edged higher following US President Donald Trump’s order of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate accumulation continued to support demand.

ETF inflows and corporate buying lift spot demand

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $615 million in net inflows between Thursday and Friday, reversing the trend from the previous two days. At the same time, Strategy (MSTR US) said it acquired 13,927 BTC over the past week, with $1 billion in purchases funded through its yield-bearing instrument, Stretch (STRC US).

Despite this, Bitcoin’s price action remains closely linked to broader macroeconomic conditions and the S&P 500. The cryptocurrency fell to $70,500 over the weekend after failed US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, before risk assets—including Bitcoin—rebounded as Brent crude oil later retreated to $99 on Monday.

Derivatives metrics still point to limited bullish leverage

Bitcoin showed strength around $74,000, but derivatives indicators have not yet turned decisively bullish. Bitcoin monthly futures traded at a 2% annualized premium versus regular spot markets, signaling a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, the futures premium indicator is expected to hold between 4% and 8% to offset the cost of capital.

Bitcoin is down 18% in 2026, while the S&P 500 is relatively flat year-to-date, underscoring that the rally has not yet translated into a broader risk-on shift for crypto.

Regulatory clarity could support sentiment

While the specific drivers behind Bitcoin’s sharp late-January correction were not identified, the article points to uncertainty in the US regulatory environment as a potential factor. US Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged lawmakers to approve the CLARITY Act, which would define how stablecoin issuers operate and set thresholds for tokens to be considered decentralized.

The bill is described as facing a critical window in the Senate Banking Committee. Major exchanges have raised concerns about late-stage additions to decentralized finance (DeFi) restrictions and the scope of tokenized assets. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins said, “it is time” for Congress to advance with regulation.

Stablecoin pricing suggests demand to exit crypto remains elevated

USD stablecoins traded at a 0.4% discount to the official US dollar-to-yuan exchange rate on Monday, which the article describes as a typical sign of excessive demand to exit cryptocurrency markets. It notes that balanced demand usually results in a 0.5% to 1.5% premium to compensate for the costs of traditional FX remittance and regulatory friction tied to China’s capital controls.

Miner selling and macro uncertainty weigh on the outlook

Given Bitcoin’s strong correlation with traditional markets and weak derivatives signals, the article says there is no basis to conclude the bear market is over based solely on ETF inflows and accumulation by a limited number of companies—especially as publicly listed miners have reduced their holdings.

In the past 30 days, MARA Holdings (MARA US) sold 15,133 BTC, Riot Platforms (RIOT US) reduced its exposure by 2,325 BTC, and Cango (CANG US) sold 2,000 BTC.

For now, the article frames Bitcoin’s path toward $80,000 as dependent largely on improved risk perception, while short-term momentum is described as tied to the status of the US and the Israel-Iran war.