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Analyst Willy Woo said bitcoin still behaves like a risk asset during periods of uncertainty and war, despite having characteristics often associated with safe-haven assets. In remarks dated April 24, Woo argued that bitcoin’s underlying design supports cross-border wealth preservation, but that large capital pools have not yet fully accepted it as a safe haven in practice.
Woo described bitcoin’s portability and independence from the traditional financial system as key safe-haven properties. He said that in wartime conditions, holders can use a seed phrase to move across borders and re-establish access to their wealth without losing it.
“It has the properties of a safe haven asset. In times of war you can take your seed phrase, cross borders and start afresh without losing your wealth,” Woo detailed.
He emphasized that bitcoin’s design reflects traits expected of safe-haven assets, including the ability to retain access to wealth even in extreme scenarios such as displacement or conflict. Woo also noted that bitcoin should be independent of the existing system and continue to function if parts of that system fail.
“Most bitcoiners think BTC is a safe haven asset but the truth is nuanced.”
“It should be independent of the system and thrive if it collapses. These are the properties you’d expect of a safe haven,” Woo emphasized.
However, Woo said bitcoin’s real-world trading pattern does not match that expectation during uncertainty. He pointed to bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro stress and said it trades like the NASDAQ.
“BTC has the properties of a safe haven but to this day, in times of uncertainty and war it trades like a risk asset, very sensitive to uncertainty,” Woo acknowledged. “This is because the large capital pools don’t acknowledge BTC’s properties as it’s considered too new and untested. Hence, it trades like the NASDAQ.”
Woo’s comments link bitcoin’s safe-haven classification to investor acceptance rather than its technical structure alone. While he cited decentralization and self-custody as aligning with safe-haven theory, he said market pricing continues to be influenced by institutional behavior and liquidity flows.
As long as large allocators treat bitcoin primarily as a speculative asset, Woo suggested it is likely to remain correlated with risk markets during stress events.
Woo concluded that bitcoin may take years to gain broader market acceptance as a safe haven. He said it could take another decade—or longer—for bitcoin to be treated similarly to gold in terms of market role.
“It’ll take another decade for it to gain market acceptance as a safe haven, maybe longer. When it does, it’ll give gold market cap a run for its money.”
Overall, Woo framed bitcoin’s evolution as a gradual process driven by trust and adoption. He suggested that repeated exposure to macro crises and deeper institutional participation could help reposition bitcoin closer to traditional safe-haven assets. Until then, he said bitcoin’s dual identity—protective by design but risk-driven in price—may continue to shape how it functions in global markets.
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