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Most analysts had ruled out the “4-Year Cycle” for Bitcoin (BTC), arguing the narrative was no longer valid. However, James Lavish, a partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, said he was mistaken and that the cycle remains relevant.
Lavish previously argued that a liquidity cycle, rather than Bitcoin’s halving cycle, was driving price action. He later acknowledged he was wrong after BTC reached a new high of $126K.
“I thought the four-year cycle was dead. I declared it dead last year. I was wrong.”
Lavish said Bitcoin began to turn in line with the 4-year cycle when prices moved above $100K. He pointed to long-time holders—described as “Bitcoin OGs” with tens of thousands of BTC—selling heavily to monetize accumulated wealth.
Lavish linked Bitcoin’s outlook to broader liquidity conditions. He said that when the money supply increases, prices tend to rise across assets including gold, silver, Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and real estate.
He also noted that market declines could occur in the short term due to fears related to wars, quantum computing, and AI, but argued that liquidity ultimately supports recovery.
Lavish compared the current environment to March and April 2020, leading into 2021 and 2022, when markets rebounded after quantitative easing. He said a similar dynamic could play out if the Federal Reserve continues expanding liquidity by buying long-term treasury bills from banks.
Lavish said the Fed has limited alternatives as US debt has doubled over 10 years to around $39 trillion. He added that the US needs to service $12 trillion in debts this year, implying authorities must keep dollars flowing into the system.
“The $39T US debt isn’t a problem to solve. It’s a system to maintain. More refinancing. More liquidity. A weaker dollar by design.”
On the “4-year cycle” behavior, Lavish said this cycle differs from prior ones, where corrections typically range between 70% and 90%. For the current cycle, he said the correction was about 50%, falling to around $65K from a high of $126K.
He said price action has been reaching higher levels since a potential bottom began forming in February. Lavish also described an expectation that BTC could trade to $84K before another major correction, with a breach of that level potentially putting $96K in view.
Kyle Chase said a correction back to $65K cannot be ruled out. He added that if BTC falls into that range, traders would add more leverage ahead of a potential new high.
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