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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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The VN-Index is showing a short-term rebound supported by the MA5 line. The index is currently above the MA200 (around 1,660 points) but still below the MA50 (around 1,770 points), indicating a neutral mid-term outlook over the next 1–6 months.
A major near-term factor is the FTSE Russell mid-year review, expected to be announced on April 8, which relates to the official upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market. Vietcap said preparations for the upgrade are progressing smoothly.
On the downside, uncertainty remains tied to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. While there is hope that tensions with Iran will ease, conflicting statements and military actions could drive strong volatility in global financial markets. In addition, the US market has not yet confirmed an uptrend, as the Dow Jones has not reclaimed the 200-day moving average.
Liquidity conditions in Vietnam’s banking system have shown signs of tightening. Several commercial banks have raised 12-month deposit rates to above 9% per year, which may reduce funds flowing into the stock market.
Technically, the VN-Index remains in a short-term rebound with support from the MA5 line. Being above the MA200 (about 1,660 points) but below the MA50 (about 1,770 points) suggests a neutral stance for the mid-term trend over 1–6 months. Compared with the US market, the signal is viewed as more positive because the Dow Jones has not yet surpassed the MA200. However, liquidity is described as being at an average level, reflecting optimistic but cautious investor sentiment.
Based on technical signals and macro developments, Vietcap outlines a positive scenario with a 60% probability. In this case, the VN-Index is likely to have formed a mid-term bottom in the MA200 region around 1,660 points. The index could then recover gradually and cautiously, depending on international market signals.
If external conditions improve—such as progress in Middle East talks, easing oil prices, and US stocks surpassing the MA200—the VN-Index could break through the resistance zone of 1,765–1,770 points within 2–3 weeks, before targeting 1,830 points in April.
For short-term opportunities, Vietcap recommends VCK and HDG based on technical analysis. For medium- to long-term prospects, BID and DGC remain on the watchlist.

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