Vietnam stock market upgrade prospects remain in focus as FTSE Russell mid-year review due April 8, 2026.

Vietnam’s stock market upgrade prospects remain in focus ahead of the FTSE Russell mid-year review due on April 8, 2026. SSI Research said the decision will be a pivotal test for Vietnam’s transition from a frontier market to an emerging market, a milestone that could open the door to a significant inflow of foreign capital.

Potential upgrade timeline and expected inflows

SSI Research estimates that if the review is favorable, Vietnam’s market could start attracting passive inflows from global ETFs from September 2026. The estimated size of these inflows is about $1.67 billion.

SSI Research expects the capital to be concentrated in large-cap stocks with high free float and strong liquidity.

Estimated allocation by major stocks

Among the names expected to receive the largest allocations, VIC is forecast to lead with around $414 million. Other expected beneficiaries include HPG ($147 million), VHM ($92 million) and FPT ($90 million). SSI Research also highlighted that other large caps such as MSN, SSI and VNM are expected to play important roles.

Gradual allocation rather than a one-time surge

SSI Research noted that foreign capital is unlikely to enter all at once. Instead, it is expected to be allocated in stages over 3–5 quarters, similar to the upgrading experience of Saudi Arabia in 2019.

Market backdrop: early momentum, cautious near-term view

Alongside upgrade expectations, reforms in infrastructure and operating mechanisms are being accelerated. The market has shown positive momentum earlier in the year and approached the 1,920-point level.

However, profit-taking pressure in March, along with concerns about rates and geopolitics, has contributed to a cautious short-term outlook.

Medium- to long-term support

Despite near-term caution, SSI Research said several medium- to long-term drivers remain supportive. These include high GDP growth targets, large-scale infrastructure investment, and expectations of a stable exchange rate.

The research also pointed to improving relative attractiveness for equities as other investment channels—such as real estate, gold, or cryptocurrencies—cool down.

Additional catalysts from IPOs

SSI Research added that anticipated IPOs, including Highlands Coffee, CP Vietnam and Dienmayxanh, could help deepen the market and attract additional capital.

Overall, the FTSE Russell upgrade remains a key catalyst expected to shape capital flows and valuation levels in the period ahead.