Investors surprised by VN-Index forecast to rise to 2,000 points

Rong Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VDSC) released its April strategy report on the stock market, highlighting a mixed picture of risk and opportunity.

In March, the VN-Index fell 10.9% from the previous month, mainly due to the Middle East conflict and concerns over energy security. Despite the decline, liquidity remained high, averaging 27.193 trillion VND per session, suggesting that funds have not left the market but are instead circulating and selectively seeking opportunities.

March performance and April stance

VDSC said March was volatile, with many deep corrections. Entering April, the Vietnamese stock market is expected to adopt a cautious stance, while gradually presenting opportunities for long-term accumulation.

According to VDSC, risk factors such as geopolitical tensions and rate pressures have been partly reflected in prices. Investors are beginning to expect a recovery supported by stable macro fundamentals.

VDSC’s forecast for the VN-Index

In its report titled “Waiting for the East Wind,” VDSC forecasts the VN-Index to trade in the short- and medium-term in the range of 1,584 to 2,042 points.

The target price (Adjusted P/E) is about 12.5x to 16.0x, implying a potential swing of -5.4% to +21.9% versus the end of March. VDSC noted this indicates the market is not positioned for a rapid rally, but could recover if supportive factors emerge.

Overall, VDSC expects the April market and near-term outlook to oscillate between 1,584 and 2,042 points.

Macro signals supporting the market

VDSC pointed to several positive macro signals. The second session of the 14th Party Central Committee set a target for GDP growth of at least 10% on average for 2026–2030. The State Bank issued Circular 2342 to stabilize lending rates and improve transparency. The PMI for March stood at 54.3, signaling improvements in manufacturing and orders.

Key risks and market positioning

VDSC said April is a key period as geopolitical factors gradually approach an adjustment threshold. The market is believed to have priced in most of the negative scenario.

Sector focus and investment approach

On sector selection, VDSC highlighted banks, retail-consumer, real estate, and oil and gas transportation as areas to watch.

For the short term, VDSC recommends capital preservation and avoiding chasing groups that benefit temporarily from energy price volatility. For the long term, it views current pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate leading stocks with strong fundamentals, as valuations have become more attractive.