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VNDirect Research says 2026 could mark a turning point for Vietnam’s stock market after FTSE Russell officially upgrades Vietnam to the secondary tier of the emerging market category in September 2026. The brokerage expects infrastructure improvements and structural reforms to help the market move closer to regional standards.
In its base scenario, VNDirect forecasts the VN-Index to close 2026 at 1,967 points, up about 10.2% from 2025. The target is below an earlier early-year strategy projection of 2,100 points, reflecting external risks that could drive short-term volatility.
VNDirect argues that a stable macro backdrop, improving earnings prospects, and relatively attractive valuations should support an upward trend in 2026. It projects that profits of listed companies on HoSE could rise about 14% in 2026, revised down from a prior 18% estimate. The adjustment follows stronger-than-expected Q4/2025 earnings, which creates a higher earnings base for 2026.
On liquidity, VNDirect expects average daily trading value to increase by around 15% in 2026 versus 2025, to about VND 33,500 billion per session. The brokerage links this to the market’s preparation phase ahead of new capital inflows following the FTSE Russell upgrade.
VNDirect’s base scenario assumes the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points once in 2026. It forecasts the DXY index to remain below 100, averaging below 97 over the year, which it says should help keep the USD/VND exchange rate stable, with a rise of less than 2.5% in 2026.
The brokerage expects system-wide credit growth of around 17%. After a modest rise in late 2025, it anticipates deposit and lending rates will remain stable throughout 2026.
VNDirect estimates the VN-Index P/E in 2026 could be around 14x, implying a discount of about 10% versus the 10-year average.
In the short term, VNDirect expects potential profit-taking pressure near the prior peak around 1,910 points (±30 points), noting that risks from the Middle East conflict remain unresolved. It also expects the index could enter a consolidation phase while supportive factors converge, including cooling inflation and improved bank liquidity.
VNDirect advises investors to use a flexible trading approach: take profits around the 1,910-point area (±30 points) and consider re-entering if the index returns to support around 1,820 points. It also recommends prioritizing stocks with solid fundamentals, high liquidity, and potential to benefit from ETF inflows.
VNDirect’s outlook follows similar target revisions by other brokerages. For example, BSC Securities revised its VN-Index target downward to 1,750 points, and trimmed forward P/E from about 15.5–16x to 13–13.5x, closer to the 5-year average. It also downgraded expected profit growth for listed companies to 11–12% from 16–17%, attributing the change mainly to higher input costs that narrow profit margins.
BSC also adjusted liquidity expectations lower, projecting average daily trading value of about USD 0.96 billion per session versus USD 1.06 billion previously, describing this as a “new normal” after a period of volatility.
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