Capital inflows resume; SSI Research identifies 13 stocks poised for a new uptrend

Vietnam’s stock market entered 2026 with positive momentum, moving close to the base target of 1,920 points in the early months before a correction in March. SSI Research said the pullback largely reflects profit-taking after a strong rally, alongside concerns about rising domestic interest rates and increasing geopolitical risks. The firm characterized the correction as tactical rather than structural, while maintaining support for the market’s medium-term outlook.

Market outlook: growth support and capital rotation

SSI Research pointed to the economy’s growth platform as a key driver. The government’s 10% GDP growth target signals a path toward a higher-growth model, with emphasis on boosting infrastructure spending across transport, energy, and urban development. The firm said this supports demand in the short term and improves long-term productivity, creating a foundation for higher corporate profit growth.

For Q1 2026, GDP is estimated to have risen 7.83% year-on-year, compared with 7.07% in the same period a year earlier. To meet the full-year target, SSI Research noted the economy needs to accelerate further from Q2.

SSI Research also expects domestic capital to rotate back into equities as other investment channels cool. It cited a decline in interest in real estate and gold, and tighter regulation facing the cryptocurrency market. In addition, abundant IPO supply from large companies—including Highlands Coffee, CP Vietnam, and Dien May Xanh—could deepen market depth and improve liquidity.

Sectors to watch in 2026

Banks: SSI Research said banks remain a growth pillar, with profits expected to stay in double digits in 2026. The outlook is supported by steady lending demand and a gradual recovery in net interest margins after a dip in 2025, while asset-quality pressure is expected to remain under control. The firm favored CTG and MBB for upside, while it viewed VCB as more suitable for defensive exposure due to its prudent business model and superior asset quality.

Consumer: The consumer sector outlook remains positive, supported by the rollout of retail networks to increase market share and supportive policies, including higher tax exemption thresholds from early 2026. SSI Research added that recent increases in oil prices could weigh on consumer sentiment.

Construction materials: SSI Research said construction materials are in a favorable position due to direct exposure to the infrastructure and construction investment cycle. It noted that demand growth can help firms pass input-cost increases to prices. Hoa Phat Group (HPG) was highlighted as benefiting from anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil imports from China, alongside a rebound in global steel prices.

Information technology: The information technology sector is expected to rebound after a relatively subdued 2025, with valuations becoming more attractive. SSI Research cited FPT as a company that may see improved growth in 2026.

Industries benefiting from higher rates: SSI Research said the higher interest-rate environment creates opportunities for certain industries. It pointed to insurance companies and state-owned enterprises with ample cash holdings that can benefit from higher deposit yields. It specifically mentioned oil and gas, fertilizers, and consumer goods, where firms with solid balance sheets and abundant cash flow are positioned to support profitability.