Domestic gold prices could fall sharply if 11 entities are licensed to import and produce bullion gold

Domestic gold prices are currently about 20 million dong per tael higher than world prices. With additional units licensed to import raw gold and produce bullion, domestic prices are expected to ease and the gap with global levels could narrow.

Licensing for bullion production and gold imports

At a press briefing on the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) Q1 2026 Banking Activity results on April 14, Dao Xuan Tuan, Director of the Foreign Exchange Management Department, said that, to date, 11 units—including enterprises and credit institutions—have submitted dossiers to seek licenses to produce bullion and import gold. He added that two more applications were filed since the start of the year.

Mr. Tuan said the licensing process is “very strict,” with the SBV coordinating to review applications. Official results will be announced to the press when available.

Expected effect on the domestic–world price gap

SBV’s move to license more units to produce bullion and import raw gold is expected to increase supply in the near term. This could help stabilize the market and reduce the spread between domestic and world gold prices, which currently stands at over 20 million dong per tael. In recent days, the gap had been above 30 million dong.

Market outlook and factors affecting price convergence

Many investors and buyers are watching whether, once all licensed units import raw gold and produce bullion, domestic prices will fall to world levels or come closer. In an interview with Nguoi Lao Dong on the morning of April 16, Huynh Trung Khanh—adviser to the World Gold Council (WGC) in Vietnam and Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Trading Association (VGTA)—said the speed and extent of any price adjustment depend on the volume of imported raw gold.

He noted that if enterprises permitted to import raw gold and produce bullion can meet market demand, the spread could narrow to 10 million dong or 5 million dong per tael. He added that domestic gold prices would likely fall quickly if consumers can buy bullion without restrictions. However, he said official information is still needed on the source of imported gold and the quotas allocated to enterprises.

Recent price and demand conditions

In recent weeks, gold prices have been relatively stable at around 170 million dong per tael, and market activity has been modest. Typically, in the second quarter each year, gold trading demand is not as brisk after the busy first quarter, which coincides with the Lunar New Year and the Thanh Tai festival.

Market observations also indicate that demand for bullion and plain gold has declined significantly, with trading below the late-January peak of around 190–191 million dong per tael.

Policy changes under Decree 232/2025/NĐ-CP

Under Government Decree 232/2025/NĐ-CP amending Decree 24/2012/NĐ-CP on management of gold trading, the monopoly on bullion is removed. The SBV will assign rights to import and to produce bullion to a number of banks and eligible enterprises.

Enterprises seeking bullion production licenses must have charter capital of at least 1,000 billion dong, while banks require 50,000 billion dong. These units must be on the SBV-approved list of entities allowed to buy and sell precious metals, and must not have penalties or must have corrected violations if previously penalized.