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Strategy bought a total of 89,599 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, bringing its total holdings to 762,099 BTC. The quarter marked the second-largest accumulation period on record, with only the fourth quarter of 2024 showing higher buying.
According to Livingston, if Strategy maintained the same Q1 acquisition pace for three consecutive years, its holdings would reach 1.84 million Bitcoin by April 2029. That would be roughly 2.4 times the company’s current holdings of 762,099 BTC.
The projection is framed as a floor estimate under a worst-case scenario. Livingston notes it assumes no improvement in capital market conditions and no expansion in demand for STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock.
The chart accompanying Livingston’s post breaks purchases into price regimes. Strategy bought 340,983 BTC in regimes above $90,000, compared with 161,326 BTC in sub-$50,000 regimes—an accumulation ratio of 2.11x (high to low).
The largest single band shown is the $90,000 to $110,000 range, where disclosed purchases totaled 297,102 BTC across 30 events. That band accounted for 39.0% of all buys. The next-largest band was $70,000 to $90,000 with 162,805 BTC, followed by the sub-$30,000 band with 99,030 BTC.
Livingston’s analysis highlights that Strategy has not been most aggressive when Bitcoin appeared cheapest. Instead, the company’s most extreme buying occurred when Bitcoin was already expensive and still rising.
Livingston links the Q1 accumulation story to a broader Bitcoin thesis and how it may feed into Strategy’s valuation. Even if Strategy traded at a flat 1.0 multiple to net asset value—implying no BTC yield premium—Livingston calculates that its 1x mNAV price would be $288 per share by that point.
He argues the eventual outcome could be higher because the model assumes no change in Bitcoin price. Livingston points to a long-term power law trend that places Bitcoin’s price target near $360,000 by the end of 2028, saying the broader market may be underestimating both Strategy’s future balance sheet and the knock-on effect on Bitcoin’s valuation.
Livingston characterizes Strategy’s ability to accumulate nearly 90,000 BTC in a difficult quarter—and to be incentivized to buy more as prices rise—as a significant demand force. He suggests that if large-scale corporate accumulation continues through weak quarters and increases as prices recover, the supply available to the broader market could decline faster than some traders are modeling.
BTC trading at $69,736 on the 1D chart Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay; chart from Tradingview.com
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