Ho Chi Minh City aims to raise total fertility rate to 1.6 children per woman by 2030

Ho Chi Minh City has issued a plan to implement the Vietnam Population Strategy for the 2026-2030 period, aiming to address the low birth rate and improve the population’s quality in line with sustainable development goals. The plan also reflects a shift in policy focus from family planning to a broader population-and-development approach, covering population size, structure, distribution and quality.

Key targets for 2026-2030

Under the plan, the city aims to gradually raise the total fertility rate to 1.6 children per woman by 2030. It also sets targets for population size and demographic indicators through 2030, including:

• Population: projected to reach about 14.5 million
• Sex ratio at birth: controlled at no more than 107 boys per 100 girls
• Aging structure: about 22% under 15 and about 11% aged 65 and over
• Life expectancy: average life expectancy to 77 years
• Healthy life expectancy: at least 68 years
• Physical development: average height of 18-year-old males 169 cm and females 158 cm
• Pre-marital health checks: more than 90% of couples
• Elder care and coverage: 100% of seniors have health insurance cards, health management, and access to appropriate care services at home, in the community, or in centralized facilities

Policy direction and implementation measures

The City People’s Committee directs party committees and authorities to treat population work as both an urgent and long-term strategic task. The plan highlights “breakthrough measures,” including:

• Piloting economic support for couples who have two children, including support related to housing, education and insurance
• Expanding social provision of elderly care services
• Applying 100% digital technology in population data management

Birth-rate context and national data

According to the Population Department of the Ministry of Health, in 2025 the average number of children born per Vietnamese woman was 1.93, up slightly from the historic low in 2024 of 1.91. The figure remains below the replacement level of 2.1, with substantial regional variation.

Ho Chi Minh City’s recent fertility figures

In Ho Chi Minh City, the birth rate was about 1.45 children per woman in 2024, rising to about 1.51 in 2025. Despite the rebound, the rate remains well below the 2.1 replacement level.

Specific incentives and health-care framework

The city aims to sustain the rebound in birth rates while gradually improving the policy framework to stabilize the population structure, with an emphasis on moving from broad incentives to conditional incentives suited to a large urban area.

Specifically, from September 1, 2025, under Resolution 32/2025/NQ-HĐND, women residing in Ho Chi Minh City (including both permanent and temporary residents) who have two children before age 35 will receive a one-time payment of 5 million dong. The policy is intended to directly encourage childbearing as the costs of raising children continue to rise.

In parallel, the city issued Decision 2162/QD-UBND dated May 26, 2025, approving the Comprehensive Health Care Plan for 2025-2030. The plan focuses on raising population quality from the outset, including:

• supporting pre-marital health checks
• vaccination before pregnancy
• strengthening child health care

Population management, equity and compliance

The plan also calls for tighter oversight and penalties for abuses of science and technology to select the sex of fetuses. It further states that population distribution should ensure migrants have equitable, full access to basic social services in line with sustainable urbanization.

Overall, the city said the combined set of incentives, health-care measures and population-management policies are expected to support higher birth rates and improve population quality, aligning with Ho Chi Minh City’s sustainable development goals in the years ahead.