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Americans shopping for smartphones, laptops or even home appliances may soon feel the effects of the Iran conflict—not only at the gas pump, but also at the checkout screen. A disruption to printed circuit boards (PCBs), an essential component in electronics, is pushing up costs across the tech industry and raising the likelihood of higher prices and fewer deals in the months ahead.
Prices for circuit boards have already surged, jumping as much as 40% in April alone, according to Goldman Sachs. At the same time, other key inputs used to make PCBs—such as copper foil, one of the largest cost components—have climbed as much as 30% this year.
PCBs act as the “nervous system” inside nearly every electronic device, including smartphones, computers, cars and AI servers. Analysts say the ongoing war with Iran has disrupted supplies of raw materials used to produce them.
Analysts point to an Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex in early April as a key factor. The attack halted production of a critical resin used in circuit boards and tightened global supply. They also cite disruptions to shipping routes in and out of the Gulf, which have compounded delays and shortages.
Manufacturers are scrambling to secure materials, with lead times for some chemicals stretching from about three weeks to as long as 15 weeks, according to industry sources. The pressure is cascading through the broader tech supply chain.
“It is not just PCBs,” said Ben Bajarin, CEO of Creative Strategies. “Memory, storage and wafer costs are all increasing the bill of materials for devices.”
Experts say price increases are unlikely to appear immediately for shoppers at retailers such as Best Buy or Amazon, but they are expected to materialize within the next few months. Galen Zeng, a semiconductor supply chain analyst at IDC, said the pass-through would take time as costs move through the supply chain.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said the impact may become more visible later this year, with a lag as some costs are absorbed by companies along the way. He suggested the summer and fall timeframe could see prices rise.
That timing could overlap with key retail periods, including back-to-school shopping and the early holiday buying season, when demand for electronics typically accelerates.
Data from the Institute for Supply Management suggests companies typically pass through at least part of cost increases to customers, even if they absorb some of the impact through margins, according to ISM Manufacturing PMI Chair Susan Spence.
Some analysts expect companies to absorb more costs in the short term, while others warn that price increases could persist. Zeng described the shift as a structural, multi-year upcycle tied to AI demand, saying the “cost floor for advanced electronics is shifting upward.”
Demand for AI infrastructure is also competing with consumer electronics for limited supply of key components, squeezing availability and driving up prices across the board. Zeng said PCB demand had already been rising rapidly due to AI server growth before the Middle East conflict, further tightening supply.
Beyond higher prices, consumers may face limited availability of certain devices. Zeng said consumer electronics manufacturers may be left competing for a shrinking pool as supplies are redirected toward AI and high-performance computing. Ives said shortages are not guaranteed, but remain a risk, adding: “If it stays at the current rate, we can see shortages into the Fall on certain products.”
Supply chain shocks do not always translate one-to-one into retail price increases, but they rarely disappear entirely. The disruption may begin deep in the global supply chain, yet its effects are expected to show up in familiar ways: higher price tags, fewer discounts and tighter inventory for everyday tech products.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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