Maintaining high growth targets for the 2026–2030 period

During the ongoing First Session of the Sixteenth National Assembly, lawmakers heard reports and proposals on socio-economic development and the state budget, covering results for 2025, the early situation in 2026, and the direction for high growth in the 2026–2030 period.

Prime Minister Lê Minh Hưng presented a supplementary report on the implementation of the 2025 socio-economic development and state budget plan, as well as early 2026 execution. Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng then presented the Draft Plan for socio-economic development for 2026–2030. The Economic and Financial Committee Chair, Phan Văn Mãi, delivered appraisal reports on the above contents.

2025 results and early 2026 momentum

In his report, Prime Minister Lê Minh Hưng said Vietnam achieved and surpassed all 15 key socio-economic development indicators in 2025. He noted that macroeconomic fundamentals remained stable, with GDP growth of 8.02%. The economy reached roughly $514 billion in size, ranking 32nd worldwide. Inflation was controlled, while the monetary market and interest rates remained stable.

External trade also expanded: total import–export turnover exceeded $930 billion, with a trade surplus of over $20 billion. FDI attracted reached $27.6 billion. Tourism recovered strongly, reaching 21.2 million international visitors. On infrastructure, Vietnam made clear progress on expressways, with near completion of 3,345 km.

Social welfare outcomes included the early completion of removing more than 334 thousand temporary or dilapidated houses and the construction of over 102 thousand social housing units. Multidimensional poverty fell to 1.3%. The E-Government Development Index rose 15 places since 2020, ranking 71/193 countries. Defense and security were maintained, while foreign affairs and international integration continued to be promoted.

In the first months of 2026, the domestic economy remained positive despite a complex global environment. Q1 2026 GDP growth was about 7.83%, and average CPI was around 3.51%. State budget revenue for three months was roughly 829.4 trillion VND, up 11.4%. FDI attraction reached $5.4 billion, up 9.1%, and total import–export turnover was about 23% higher.

The Prime Minister also highlighted that Vietnam began construction of the first semiconductor fabrication plant and continued implementing Plan 06, bringing benefits to people and businesses.

Cause and policy response: “two numbers” growth targets

Alongside achievements, Prime Minister Lê Minh Hưng pointed to challenges including weak domestic demand, a slowly recovering real estate market, and the high policy execution demands created by the “two numbers” growth target.

He said the Government will align with directives from General Secretary and State President Tô Lâm on not tolerating low growth, concentrating resources to achieve the “two numbers” growth target through correct choices, rapid deployment, end-to-end implementation, and direct accountability for results.

Development measures for 2026

The Government aims to increase budget revenue by about 10% and to cut current expenditures thoroughly. Current spending is expected to be reduced by 10% from the start of the year and a further 5% by mid-year to free resources for growth-oriented investment and contingency. Monetary policy should be managed flexibly to ensure price stability.

For public investment, the Government plans to reduce dispersion by cutting by at least 30% the number of projects using the state budget in the 2026–2030 period. It will require full evaluation of economic–social efficiency before capital allocation. Institutional reform will shift from “control” to “development-oriented creation,” including reviewing laws, cutting time and compliance costs by 50%, and continuing to reduce conditional sectors and eliminate unnecessary conditions.

Resolving bottlenecks in land and energy is identified as a top priority, with a commitment to ensure no electricity shortages under any scenario. In the social sector, the Government targets completing 108 inter-communal schools in border areas by August 30, 2026, striving for 100% of hospitals to implement electronic medical records, and making 2026 the year to improve the quality of local officials, including replacing weak officials.

Draft plan for 2026–2030: pillars, targets, and execution

Presenting the Draft Plan, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Văn Thắng said that in 2021–2025 Vietnam achieved and surpassed 22 out of 26 key indicators, with 2024 and 2025 fulfilling all 15/15 indicators. In 2025, GDP size reached about $517.4 billion, and GDP per capita was $5,026.

For 2026–2030, the Government proposed five guiding principles, 59 key indicators, 11 groups of focal solutions, and 92 tasks requiring immediate implementation in 2026. The target is GDP growth of at least 10% on average over five years, with GDP per capita reaching about $8,500 by 2030. The share of the digital economy is targeted at around 30% of GDP.

To realize these goals, the Government prioritizes completing an orderly, competitive development framework; moving decisively from “pre-approval” to “post-approval” control; and aiming to place Vietnam’s investment climate among the top three in ASEAN and among the world’s top 30 by 2028. On infrastructure, the plan targets putting into use over 5,000 km of expressways by 2030 and investing in the North–South high-speed rail axis.

In 2026 specifically, the Government focuses on clearing stalled projects and reducing costs and administrative procedure time by at least 50% versus 2024.

Appraisal and concerns: growth quality and external disbursement

On behalf of the reviewing agency, Chair Phan Văn Mãi acknowledged the economy’s recovery and acceleration in 2025, noting that all 15 indicators were met or surpassed. However, the Committee said growth quality remained unsustainable and was heavily dependent on capital, labor, and the FDI sector. It also pointed out that budget revenue forecasting was not precise and that the external capital disbursement rate reached only 44.5%.

Given global uncertainty and pressure from high growth targets, the Committee urged the Government to shift from “reaction” to proactive adaptation. Phan Văn Mãi emphasized the need for firm commitment to real growth, macro stability, and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to avoid “stumbles.” He also said institutional reform must be genuinely transformative, focusing on quality and coherence, and measuring reform success by results rather than the number of legal documents.

The Committee further stressed the need for fundamental solutions to energy challenges, prioritizing the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks, and enhancing internal capacity and enforcement capabilities as key to policy effectiveness in the next period.