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Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, $MSBT, has recorded $184 million in total inflows without a single day of outflows. The streak has coincided with geopolitical relief following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while markets also continue to price the possibility of further upside in crypto prices.
Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30 is currently priced at 2.9% YES. That target has eased from 4% YES a week earlier to 2.9% YES, and the ETF’s uninterrupted inflow streak has not shifted the near-term odds.
For later timing, the September 30 market is priced at 9.5% YES, reflecting expectations of additional time for institutional buying pressure to influence spot prices.
Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026 is priced at 4% YES. The content indicates that Bitcoin’s institutional inflows have not moved Ethereum expectations.
Trading volumes are described as thin. The Bitcoin all-time high market shows a daily actual USDC trade value of $917.
Order book depth varies significantly between sub-markets. The content states that $959 is enough to move the June 30 market by five points, implying that a single participant could cause large swings. It also notes that the largest recent move in the September 30 market was a two-point spike, likely driven by one large order.
The unbroken inflow streak is presented as evidence of institutional demand amid a regulatory environment that has shifted toward greater permissiveness. The content also frames the June 30 Bitcoin all-time high outcome as a long-shot: a YES share at 3¢ is described as paying 33.3x.
The article says investors should watch for corporate Bitcoin adoption announcements or regulatory developments that could accelerate institutional inflows. It also references that commentary from Michael Saylor and Elon Musk on Bitcoin’s trajectory has historically influenced sentiment in these markets.
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