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On May 13, 2026, crude oil trading was muted for the 30-plus day conditional U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with small progress reported for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the war-related premium in crude, evident in March and early April, appears to have been lifted, and traders are refocusing on regular fundamentals.
Both crude contracts pointed to a more even market for oil. With U.S. production, OPEC+ supply, and damage recovery progress, crude markets are described as being in balance, alongside lower demand in some high-cost locations. Natural gas also traded flat, supported by plentiful storage data in the U.S. and Europe amid unseasonably mild temperatures. The regional truce is expected to support steadier Gulf supply, contributing to softer international spot markets, while long-term LNG demand fundamentals remain positive in both Asia and Europe.
Crude and natural gas futures could continue to move within their respective ranges as U.S. inventory reports and the next OPEC+ policy signals arrive. However, the ceasefire is fragile, leaving risk that the war premium could return and disrupt energy markets again.
Natural gas futures were at $2.848 on the 2h NYMEX chart. The contract rebounded from a $2.78 low, with green candles taking back the red 50-period moving average around $2.83. Price action is described as respecting the lower descending channel, while also producing bullish rejection wicks at a key Fibonacci confluence. The RSI is above the 55 line, indicating short-term momentum to move higher.
The latest move is also printing higher lows within a short-term base formation, and price is respecting a blue trendline as support. Overhead resistance is at $2.85, followed by the channel ceiling at $2.936. Volume is supporting the move, with buyers entering on the lower side. Price has taken back the $2.81 level, signaling an improvement in market structure while still fighting a multi-week descending trend.
Trade idea: Buy $2.848 for a target of $2.85, with a stop at $2.81.
WTI crude oil was at $101.54 on the 2h chart, recovering from a $99.18 low. Big green engulfing candles took back the red 50-period moving average around $100.65. Price is contained within a blue ascending channel from mid-April lows and is printing higher lows. The most recent bullish continuation also rejected a white descending trendline drawn at the April highs.
Fibonacci analysis of the May swing indicates the 38.2% retracement level at $100.65 has been defended. RSI is back above 52 and is not in overbought territory. The volume profile shows $100 as a new floor, with buying coming in on dips. Overhead resistance is at $101.99, followed by $103 to $105 near the top of the channel. The market structure is described as bullish above the $99.18 low, with price respecting the midline of the blue channel.
Trade idea: Buy $101.50 for a target of $103.00, with a stop at $100.00.
Brent crude oil was at $107.28 on the 2h chart, holding near the lower line of a blue ascending channel formed off a $107.78 rejection in the last five sessions. Price tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $103.26 and produced green rejection wicks, suggesting buying interest near $106.50. The latest price action continues to print higher lows, and a red moving average is acting as support.
RSI is hovering near the 50 line, described as neutral to positive rather than overextended. Key support levels include the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $105.55 and the channel extension from $107.85 to $111.09. The volume profile has $107 as a pivot level, with buying expected to reappear if price declines back toward that area. The April up-channel remains in effect as long as price stays above $103.24.
Trade idea: Buy $107.25 for a target of $107.85, with a stop at $106.40.
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