New Industry and Trade Minister Faces Energy-Supply Pressures as Exports Shift From Rapid Growth to Sustainable Strength

On April 8, Le Manh Hung was approved by the National Assembly to serve as Minister of Industry and Trade for the 2026-2031 term. He previously held the acting minister role. The appointment comes as the industry and trade sector faces energy-supply pressures, including gasoline and electricity, alongside new developments in imports and exports.

Ensuring electricity and gasoline supply for growth

In the 2026-2031 period, with a target of double-digit growth, Nguyen Tien Thoa, Chairman of the Vietnam Appraisal Association and former Director of the Price Management Department (Ministry of Finance), said national energy security—especially electricity and gasoline—must be treated as a central task. He noted that energy supply security underpins production and daily life, supports sustainable development, and is linked to national defense and security.

Thoa said the sector faces new energy-supply developments, including electricity and gasoline. He pointed to the impact of ongoing Middle East conflicts, which can create major energy bottlenecks and make it more difficult to secure supply and build national fuel stocks.

He emphasized that electricity development must be prioritized to meet growth targets above 10% in the coming period. The electricity sector is expected to face a hot summer, while electricity consumption has already reached new highs in 2026.

Rising demand and project risks

Thoa highlighted risks to supply security as demand grows, including generation capacity not keeping pace with demand, delays in many projects, and hydropower dependence on weather and fuel supply constraints. He also cited challenges related to LNG mega-projects and offshore wind under the VIII electricity plan.

In 2026, peak electricity demand could rise by about 14%. He also warned of infrastructure risks stemming from misalignment between renewable energy development and the transmission system. Rapid demand growth—particularly during peak hours in hot seasons—can overload the grid and raise safety risks.

Cash-flow and pricing pressures

Thoa further noted that the electricity sector faces cash-flow shortfalls. He said electricity prices do not fully reflect reasonable costs, which can affect the sustainability of production and power supply and create spillovers across the sector.

Policy direction

Thoa stressed the need to move toward energy supply self-reliance and to balance supply and demand under all scenarios. He called for accelerating renewable energy, natural gas, and nuclear energy, while investing in modernized transmission infrastructure and energy storage.

Trade shift from “large and fast” to “strong and sustainable”

On exports and international trade, Nguyen Bich Lam, former Director General of the General Statistics Office, said global trade faces headwinds as protectionism rises, putting pressure on Vietnamese industries. He argued that while Vietnam’s international trade has grown rapidly in scale, the ability to retain net value added for growth has been slower or even declining, as reflected in the shrinking export surplus.

Lam cited trade figures: Vietnam posted a trade surplus of $28.3 billion in 2023, which fell to $24.77 billion in 2024. In 2025, the surplus exceeded $20 billion, while Q1 2026 recorded a trade deficit of $3.64 billion.

He said foreign direct investment (FDI) accounts for a large share of the export-import structure, while the domestic economy continues to run a persistent trade deficit. In his view, this indicates that trade is growing quickly, but the domestic foundation is not yet strong enough to balance domestic and FDI sectors sustainably.

Raising domestic value added

Lam said international trade policy should aim to increase domestic value added, strengthen the role of private domestic enterprises, and develop industries that can retain higher value. He also called for developing supporting industries and supply chains to improve the quality of growth in international trade.

He concluded that trade goals should shift toward higher domestic value retention and a more sustainable balance within global value chains, with goods trade serving as a foundation for growth in 2026-2031 and beyond.

Investment climate needed to meet clean electricity demand

Bui Van Thinh, CEO of Phong Dien Thuận Bình and Chairman of the Bình Thuận Wind and Solar Association, said the new growth phase is expected to bring a sharp rise in demand for clean electricity. He noted that domestic private sectors and foreign investors will play key roles in developing the energy sector.

Thinh said the 2018-2021 renewable energy boom helped Vietnam become a regional leader in the field. He expects the incoming Industry and Trade Minister to work with the government to shape policies that improve the investment climate and promote energy development.

He said improving the investment climate is essential to attract resources into the energy sector, ensuring sufficient clean electricity for near-term economic and social development and contributing to national energy security over the longer term.