Oil-price volatility to squeeze PLX gross margin to around 4%, Mirae Asset says, similar to 2022

Mirae Asset Securities expects Petrolimex (PLX) to see a significant narrowing in gross margin, forecasting it to fall to around 4%, down 188 percentage points year-on-year. The brokerage said the pattern is similar to 2022, when the Russia–Ukraine conflict triggered sharp disruptions in global oil markets.

Margin pressure amid volatile oil prices

Petrolimex is Vietnam’s largest fuel trading and distribution company, operating a nationwide network of about 5,500 petrol stations.

While PLX posted solid results in Q1 2026, with higher output supported by cheaper oil stockpiles built up during the first two months of 2026 through imports, the company remains under pressure from volatility in global oil prices. Mirae Asset Securities forecasts gross margin to narrow to around 4% (down 188 percentage points from the prior year), citing similarities to the 2022 period.

The brokerage also flagged profit risks tied to PLX’s role as a state-owned enterprise. It noted that PLX may be willing to sacrifice profits when oil prices are high, which can directly pressure inflation expectations.

2026 growth plan and margin trade-offs

In its 2026 shareholders’ meeting brief, PLX outlined a growth plan for 2026. Domestic consumption is expected to rise 13% year-on-year, with Q1 up 15% year-on-year. PLX expects this to lift revenue and profit to record highs.

Mirae Asset Securities said the key driver is PLX’s proactive sourcing in a market facing disruption, which has led many peers to scale back—allowing PLX to gain market share and increase sales volumes.

For 2026–2027, output growth is expected to remain relatively strong at around 8.5–10%. However, while revenue growth is positive, margins are showing signs of narrowing. The brokerage suggested PLX may trade profitability to help curb inflation expectations, and it also pointed to expectations that oil prices may ease in the second half of 2026, which could further affect margins.

Longer-term outlook shaped by energy transition

Looking further out, Mirae Asset Securities described a more cautious long-term outlook. From 2026 to 2030, PLX targets output growth of about 7% per year, with revenue and profits maintaining a similar growth pace of roughly 7% per year. The slower growth reflects the clearer impact of the energy transition, including the rise of electric vehicles and policies promoting the use of clean fuels.

The trend has already been visible in 2024–2025, when PLX’s gasoline consumption grew only modestly, around 1–3% year-on-year. Overall growth was instead led mainly by diesel oil (DO) used for industrial activity, which accounted for more than 50% of total consumption.

Public company status risk under securities law

Separately, Petrolimex disclosed unusual information indicating it currently does not meet the conditions to maintain its status as a publicly traded company under Vietnam’s securities law.

Based on the shareholder registry for the 2026 annual general meeting (record date 25 March) prepared by the Vietnam Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, PLX has 43,266 shareholders.

Of these, 43,264 are non-major shareholders holding voting rights. However, the total ownership of this retail shareholder group amounts to just over 9.4% of voting rights.

Under current securities law, a public company must ensure at least 10% of voting shares are held by at least 100 non-major investors. With the current ownership ratio, Petrolimex does not meet this requirement.

The company has one year to remedy the situation. If, after this period, it still cannot raise the share of ownership held by small investors to the minimum required by law, Petrolimex must submit documents to the State Securities Commission for consideration of canceling its public company status.

Concentrated ownership structure

Petrolimex’s shareholder structure is highly concentrated. Its 2024 annual report shows the state owns nearly 76% of charter capital. Foreign strategic shareholder ENEOS Corporation holds 13.08%, bringing total ownership to about 90%.