Q1 2026 profit forecast shows strong growth across multiple sectors, with fertilizer, oil and gas, and real estate potentially rising more than 100%, while electricity and industrial zones decline.

VPBankS Joint Stock Company (VPBankS) released its forecast of Q1 2026 earnings, highlighting pronounced sectoral divergence. The forecast indicates many sectors are expected to report profit growth that is multiples higher than the year-ago period, while some industries continue to face declines due to cyclical effects and input costs. Leading the growth is the fertilizer sector, with projected profit growth of about 142%, driven by a low base in Q1 2025 when selling prices were low and demand had yet to recover. In 2026, fertilizer prices improved and demand from the agricultural sector recovered, expanding margins for companies in the sector and laying the groundwork for a sharp profit surge in the quarter. The oil and gas group is also forecast to grow strongly, by around 106%, reflecting a coordinated recovery across the value chain from upstream to downstream, as oil prices stay favorable. Exploration, production, technical services, and processing all show positive signals, supporting results for firms in the sector. Notably, the residential and commercial real estate groups are projected to see profits up about 112% year-over-year. The primary driver is revenue recognition from several large-scale projects, particularly from leading firms. Improving primary supply, flexible sales policies, and credit support from commercial banks are contributing to liquidity in several segments. While the real estate credit environment remains under control to limit risk, the policy environment generally remains supportive. Several key infrastructure projects planned for completion in 2026 are expected to improve connectivity and thus boost housing demand in related areas. Proposals to amend the Housing Law and the Real Estate Business Law are also expected to strengthen the legal framework and provide a more stable basis for market development in the medium to long term. On the downside, VPBankS expects the electricity group to report a profit decline of about 11.9% year over year, mainly due to unfavorable hydrological conditions reducing hydroelectric output. In addition, input costs for thermal plants remain high, narrowing margins and affecting overall sector performance. Additionally, the industrial real estate and rubber sectors are forecast to fall about 13.3% in profits, reflecting weaker demand for industrial land in the near term while natural rubber prices have been volatile, posing challenges for firms to sustain profit growth as in prior periods. The quarterly profit picture for Q1 2026 shows an increasingly clear divergence across sectors. Cyclical sectors tied to commodity demand and recovery are leading growth, while those more dependent on natural conditions or facing input-cost pressures remain challenged. In this context, VPBankS believes the divergence trend could continue in coming quarters as macro conditions and policy continue to adjust, requiring investors to select sectors and companies carefully rather than following broad market trends as in earlier cycles. — Xuân Bắc