Real estate market in a dual-track phase as it restructures amid macro dynamics

Vietnam’s real estate market is entering a new cycle in which real value, transparency, and sustainability will determine which projects and investors succeed. At a meeting on the Q1 2026 real estate market held on the afternoon of April 15, 2026, the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS) said the market is going through one of the strongest cleansing phases in years. VARS attributed the process to both internal market factors and macro variables, including interest rates, exchange rates, inflation pressures, and global geopolitical uncertainties. Within this cleansing phase, the market structure is gradually being reshaped toward higher quality, safety, and sustainability.

Six guiding directions for market restructuring

VARS Vice Chairman Nguyen Van Dinh, also President of VARS, said the market is in a dual state: it is influenced by macro variables while also self-adjusting through screening and internal restructuring. Instead of indiscriminate growth, capital flows are becoming more selective, with clear differentiation among market participants.

According to VARS, financially capable firms with solid governance and legal capacity are actively expanding scale—growing market share through new project development, mergers and acquisitions, and land bank accumulation. Weaker firms, by contrast, are being forced to scale back activities or withdraw from the market.

Leaders at VARS also pointed to pressure from mortgage rates for housing purchases as a contributor to the cleansing. As the cost of capital is no longer “cheap,” investors must weigh projects more carefully, prioritizing transparent legal status, reputable developers, and real-world utilization potential. VARS said this helps curb speculation and price gouging—problems that previously contributed to instability across cycles.

VARS emphasized that the market is not for short-term “gambling,” but is shifting toward long-term value and necessary transformation to mature the market. The move from quantity to quality is described as an inevitable trend and a prerequisite for stronger market development and positive contributions to national economic growth in the coming years.

VARS’s market research arm, VARS IRE, shared a similar view. Le Dinh Chung, General Director of SGO Homes and Vice Chairman of the Market Research Council assessing Vietnam’s real estate market, said that while screening creates near-term pressures, it is necessary for a more transparent, professional, and sustainable market in the long run.

In that context, the market is expected to restructure around six main trends:

• Restructuring supply toward more concentrated offerings, higher standards, and prioritization of green, sustainable, and high-quality projects.
• Restructuring development space with a shift toward infrastructure and the formation of integrated, multi-functional urban areas.
• Restructuring the capital channel as cheap funds fade, pushing participants toward safer and more sustainable financial structures.
• Restructuring buyer behavior toward real-use value and long-term efficiency of use rather than short-term expectations of price appreciation.
• Restructuring demand so that real demand and long-term investment continue to underpin market stability.
• Restructuring market operation mechanisms through deeper differentiation and gradual alignment with sustainable development standards.

Key factors determining the future trajectory

In the near term, VARS said the market will continue to feel the influence of macro factors and financial pressures, while opportunities increasingly favor players with capabilities, clear strategies, and strong adaptability.

VARS IRE experts identified three decisive factors for shaping the new growth cycle: completion of the legal framework, infrastructure breakthroughs, and a stable political–economic environment with clear development directions.

VARS said government efforts to refine land, investment, and real estate-related regulations aim to remove bottlenecks, expedite project implementation, and enhance transparency and efficiency. It also noted that public investment in infrastructure—such as expressways, airports, and ring roads—is forming new growth poles and supporting real estate value growth by aligning development with real demand rather than speculative activity. A stable macroeconomic environment and foreign capital participation were described as essential for raising development and governance standards.

Outlook

In the long term, VARS said sustainable real estate development is considered fully plausible, supported by stable macro conditions, continued infrastructure investment, and political will alongside active engagement from the business community. The association described this as a natural progression in market evolution rather than only confidence.