Russia's oil and gas revenues double in April as Middle East conflict disrupts supply, Reuters reports

Supply disruption linked to the Middle East conflict helped Russia’s oil and gas revenues double in April, Reuters reported. Based on official statistics and industry sources on production, refining and supply, Reuters calculated Russia’s oil and gas revenue for April at 700 billion rubles, up from 327 billion rubles in March (about $9 billion). Compared with the same period in 2025, revenue rose 10%.

How the revenue increase happened

Revenue to the Kremlin budget from oil and gas is collected through the mineral extraction tax. Reuters said Russian oil has remained in strong demand since the Middle East conflict escalated about six weeks ago.

After US and Israel air strikes from late February, Iran closed the Hormuz Strait, which Reuters described as accounting for roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments. That disruption pushed Brent above $100 per barrel.

Price effects on the tax base

Reuters cited data from Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development showing that the average price of Russia’s Urals crude—the tax base—rose to $77 per barrel in March, the highest since October 2023. This was up 73% from $44.59 per barrel in February and above the $59 per barrel assumed in this year’s budget plan.

Policy support for Russian oil sales

On March 12, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US temporarily allowed countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea to help stabilise global energy markets. The policy lasted 30 days, ending April 11.

By April 7, the Kremlin said many partners had expressed interest in buying Russian oil amid the global energy crisis affecting energy markets.

Ceasefire and market uncertainty

For the full year 2026, Reuters estimates Russia’s oil and gas revenues could reach 7.9 trillion rubles, roughly over $100 billion. However, Reuters said the pace of growth has limits depending on how long the conflict lasts.

Late on April 7 (the morning of April 8 in Hanoi), the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire and opened the Hormuz Strait for two weeks, helping Brent retreat below $100 per barrel. Officials from the two countries later issued mixed messages, leaving the on-the-ground situation uncertain.

On April 9, oil prices rose 3% as markets doubted the deal and concerns grew that flows through the Hormuz Strait would remain constrained. Brent and WTI were reported trading around $98 and $99 per barrel.

Impact and outlook

Susannah Streeter, an investment strategist at Wealth Club, said that even if flows resume, risk would not disappear immediately. She noted that “oil tankers may have to pass through seas with mines and increased military presence, pushing up insurance costs and shipping costs.”

Goldman Sachs projected average Brent and WTI prices in Q2 at $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively.

— Phien An (according to Reuters).