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Shopify Inc is set to report first-quarter results on what analysts describe as solid footing, but investors will be looking for a clear earnings beat, more constructive second-quarter guidance, and tangible progress on the company’s agentic commerce strategy.
Jefferies is forecasting gross merchandise value (GMV) of $101 billion for the quarter. That would represent 36% year-over-year growth and would be above the Street consensus of $99 billion.
Total revenue is expected to be $3.1 billion, implying growth of approximately 31.5%. This is described as consistent with Shopify’s guidance for low-thirties percentage growth.
Within revenue, Jefferies projects merchant solutions revenue of $2.38 billion, up 37% year-over-year. Subscription revenue is forecast at $722 million, up 16%.
Jefferies says there may be room for GMV to come in ahead of expectations, citing web traffic data on shop.app subdomains. The firm reports a 96% correlation between that traffic and GMV since the first quarter of 2023.
The bank also notes that GMV per visit has faced ongoing pressure, with declines averaging 32% year-over-year through 2025. Even with that headwind, Jefferies believes consensus expectations for 32% GMV growth may prove conservative.
Beyond the numbers, Shopify’s agentic commerce strategy is expected to be a central theme of the earnings call. Investors are expected to seek clarity on the status of agentic checkout following OpenAI’s pullback, as well as early signs of traction from Shopify’s Agentic Plan across its merchant base.
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