Stock market today: S&P 500 futures fall as Iran flags ceasefire violation; Trump says arms will remain in place; Arrive AI and Costco in focus

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday after a sharp rebound the previous day, with futures of major benchmark indices lower following Iran’s accusation that Washington violated a ceasefire.

President Donald Trump also said in a recent Truth Social post that all U.S. ammunition and weaponry “will remain in place” until a “REAL AGREEMENT” is reached and fully complied with.

Rates and Fed expectations

In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.28%, while the two-year yield was 3.77%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed markets pricing a 99.5% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its April meeting.

Major index performance

• Dow Jones: -0.39%
• S&P 500: -0.38%
• Nasdaq 100: -0.36%
• Russell 2000: -0.66%

Stocks in focus

• GameSquare Holdings (GAME): Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicated a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms.
• Costco Wholesale (COST): Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicated a strong trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a moderate growth ranking.
• Digital Realty Trust (DLR): Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicated a strong price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a solid growth score.
• Constellation Brands (STZ): Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicated a strong price trend over the short and medium terms but a weak trend in the long term, with a poor value score.
• Arrive AI (ARAI): Arrive AI Inc. rose 30.51% after announcing it secured its tenth U.S. patent for shared autonomous delivery endpoint technology. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicated a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms.

Market context from the prior session

On Wednesday, communication services, industrials, and materials stocks recorded the largest gains, helping most S&P 500 sectors close higher. Energy stocks were the exception, finishing lower.

Analyst perspective

BlackRock said it expects ongoing economic challenges in the United States, driven by external disruptions and geopolitical events. The firm cited the impact of higher energy prices on the U.S. March CPI and said supply chain shocks could eventually push up broader inflation.

BlackRock added that with persistent inflationary pressures, interest rate cuts appear unlikely in the near term, noting that “Markets now see the Fed on hold this year after partially pricing in a rate hike last week.” The firm maintained a neutral tactical view on U.S. equities and cautioned that “Higher interest rate expectations could weigh on the market – and small caps in particular.”

Despite the caution, BlackRock highlighted strategic opportunities in artificial intelligence, stating it keeps an overweight to companies that benefit from the “AI mega force.” It said it favors physical infrastructure and equipment supporting the AI buildout because these assets are positioned to “benefit no matter the winners or losers.”

Upcoming economic data

Investors will watch several releases on Thursday:

• February personal income, personal spending, PCE index, core PCE index, and the second revision of the fourth-quarter GDP number, along with initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4, all due by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• February wholesale inventories due by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Commodities, crypto, and global markets

Crude oil futures were up 3.29% in early New York trading, hovering around $97.52 per barrel. Gold spot (U.S. dollar) rose 0.22% to about $4,729.70 per ounce, with a last record high of $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.09% lower at 99.0470.

Bitcoin was down 0.60% over the prior 24 hours to $71,227.63 per coin.

In Asia, markets closed lower on Thursday except Australia’s ASX 200. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, India’s Nifty 50, South Korea’s Kospi, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 all fell. European markets were also lower in early trade.