Three reasons why Ether traders expect ETH to hold above $1,800

Ether’s recent sell-off was stopped at $1,800, as bulls aggressively defended the level. Ether’s rebound above $2,100, along with on-chain and technical data, suggests traders are likely to keep the price above $2,000 in the short term.

Ether traders realize losses

On-chain data shows that Ether’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is at 0.96, suggesting ETH investors are still selling at a loss. The metric fell as low as 0.92 on Feb. 6, implying that the move down to $1,800 was driven by traders realizing losses amid panic and extreme fear.

SOPR measures the profit or loss of spent ETH outputs by comparing the value of coins when they were last moved to their value when they are spent again. A value below 1 can indicate capitulation or a market bottom, potentially signaling a period when buying becomes more attractive.

Historical context: When SOPR fell to 0.86 after Ether’s drop to $1,500 in April, it was followed by a 246% price recovery to its current all-time high of $4,950. Similar patterns in 2022 and 2023 were followed by 130% and $155% ETH price rallies, respectively.

MVRV Z-Score points to a bottom near $1,800

Ether’s MVRV Z-Score—an on-chain metric used to identify market tops and bottoms—has dropped into the historical accumulation zone, strengthening the argument that ETH may have found a bottom.

The last time Ether’s MVRV Z-Score fell to levels similar to today was in April 2025, after a 66% price drawdown. That period coincided with a macro market bottom at $1,400 and preceded a multi-month rally, with the ETH/USD pair rising 258% to its current all-time high of $4,950.

Meanwhile, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has historically marked cycle bottoms, is currently at $1,880. From an on-chain perspective, this suggests Ether is undervalued and may continue the recovery, potentially moving toward dense liquidity clusters between $2,400 and $2,600 in the short term.

Support holds above $1,800

TradingView data indicates ETH has held above a key support zone over the last two months. The area centers on $1,800, where investors acquired more than 1.35 million ETH, according to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap.

This level also aligns with a multi-year trendline that has historically marked the bottom for ETH/USD, including in 2022 and April 2025. Ether’s rebound from this level in early February suggests the trendline continues to act as support, potentially supporting a sustained recovery toward $4,800.

As previously noted, a drop below $2,000—where the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA converge—could shift the outlook, with the price potentially moving toward the next major support at $1,750.