Two-digit growth target and the challenge of reforming the growth model

The goal of “two-digit” growth is not just an ambitious figure, but requires a change in how the economy is run—shifting from reliance on capital and labor toward greater emphasis on productivity and innovation.

Shift in policy mindset

In Parliament, Associate Professor Dr. Bùi Quang Bình, commenting on Prime Minister Lê Minh Hưng’s inaugural-term report, said the notable point is a shift in management mindset. He noted that the priority has moved from “stability to grow” to “growth with ambition linked to structural reform of the economy.”

Mr. Bình said that setting a two-digit growth target signals ambition and is intended to drive reform. However, it also raises the bar for growth quality, particularly productivity. He said the government will not rely solely on familiar drivers such as public investment or foreign direct investment (FDI), but will also prioritize the digital economy, green economy, and innovation.

From concepts to implementable policies

Mr. Bình acknowledged that these directions remain at a conceptual level. In his view, the biggest challenge is translating them into concrete, powerful policies capable of delivering breakthroughs. Without that, he said, lofty targets may be difficult to sustain over the long term.

Productivity and institutional reform

Referring to Robert Solow’s model, Mr. Bình said Vietnam is at a turning point. He argued the economy cannot continue to grow mainly through capital and labor accumulation; it must improve the efficiency of resource use. This, he said, implies institutional reform, higher governance quality, and promoting innovation as a mandatory condition rather than an optional one.

Social welfare integrated into growth strategy

Another novelty, according to Mr. Bình, is the approach to social welfare. He said social policies are being integrated into the growth strategy rather than serving only as income redistribution. He said this aligns with Amartya Sen’s view of human-centered development.

Education

He cited the proposal for a unified textbook program, which is expected to standardize education quality and reduce regional disparities, thereby raising the quality of the workforce. However, he warned that if implemented rigidly, the policy could dampen competition and innovation in teaching content.

Healthcare

On healthcare, he said periodic health checks for the population reflect a shift from “curing diseases” to “preventing diseases.” He said this can improve health and long-term productivity, but it also raises questions about the capacity of primary health care systems and the resources required to implement it.

“Silver economy”

Mr. Bình also highlighted the “silver economy” plan. Instead of viewing aging as a burden, he said the government sees it as an opportunity to open new service sectors such as elder care, insurance, or tourism for older people. To become a real pillar, however, he said it requires an ecosystem of businesses, infrastructure, and a sufficiently complete legal framework.

What will determine whether the targets are met

From his analysis, Mr. Bình said the ability to achieve the targets depends on three main factors. First is implementation capability, because policies often face lags in practice. Second is resources, since pursuing high growth while expanding social welfare may put pressure on the budget. Third is the degree of alignment between welfare and growth, because if social policies are not designed carefully, they can become costs rather than drivers.

Core challenge

Taken together, Mr. Bình concluded that the biggest challenge is not setting a two-digit growth target, but turning institutional reform and investment in people into a real driver of productivity and sustainable growth.