U.S. stocks rise as oil retreats below $100 a barrel

Investors turned more optimistic after President Donald Trump said, “The other side has called us. They want to reach a deal very much.” U.S. stock markets rose strongly on Monday, April 13, as the S&P 500 recovered all losses linked to the Gulf region conflict, with expectations building that the U.S. and Iran could ultimately reach an agreement.

Stocks rebound as deal hopes grow

At the close, the S&P 500 rose 1.02% to 6,886.24, the highest closing level since the war began on February 28. The move means the index had fully recovered its earlier losses.

The Nasdaq gained 1.23% to 23,183.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 301.68 points, or 0.63%, to close at 48,218.25. The comeback followed a weaker intraday session, when the 30 blue-chip stocks fell by more than 400 points, about 0.9%.

Technology shares led the rally, with Oracle up about 13% and Palantir up more than 3%.

Oil slips below $100 as investors watch Middle East risk

Crude oil struggled to hold above $100 a barrel and extended declines early on April 14. At the close on Monday, WTI crude for May 2026 rose 2.6% to $99.08 per barrel, while Brent for June 2026 rose nearly 4.4% to $99.36 per barrel—both retreating from the $100 level seen intraday.

In Asia early on April 14, prices continued to ease. At 7:40 a.m. Vietnam time, WTI May futures were down about 2.7% from the previous close, near $96.40 per barrel, and Brent June futures were down about 2.2%, near $97.20 per barrel.

Diplomacy and military considerations in focus

Axios, citing Middle East sources and a U.S. official, reported that intermediaries from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey would continue discussions with the U.S. and Iran in the coming days.

Separately, The Wall Street Journal cited a U.S. official saying Trump is weighing a resumption of military actions against Iran.

Market impact: shipping through the Hormuz Strait

Investors are also assessing how long the conflict could last and whether it could keep oil prices elevated, adding to global inflation pressures. The Hormuz Strait remains a key determinant of oil pricing and broader market sentiment, according to Clark Bellin, Investment Director at Bellwether Wealth, speaking to CNBC.

“Investors are trying to gauge what level stock prices should be at, because it’s hard to say when the Middle East war will end. The Hormuz Strait remains a key determinant of oil prices and overall market sentiment, and there will clearly continue to be a tug-of-war along this sea lane between the U.S. and Iran this week,” said Clark Bellin.

Reuters reported that traffic through the Hormuz Strait was nearly frozen before the U.S. began the blockade. On Saturday, only three vessels passed through Hormuz, each capable of carrying up to two million barrels. Under normal conditions, more than 100 ships pass through Hormuz daily.

Malcolm Melville, a fund manager at Schroders, said the number of ships passing through Hormuz would need to rise sharply in the next two weeks for markets to believe the crisis has ended. He added that if ship traffic reaches 75% of pre-war levels, it could be considered a return to normal crude flows, noting that Gulf countries are currently operating pipelines at full capacity that were not widely used before the war.

BlackRock raises outlook for U.S. equities

Despite the risk of a prolonged conflict, BlackRock raised its outlook for U.S. equities. BlackRock analysts argued the macro impact of the war would be limited and that solid earnings growth from listed companies could support further market gains.