VN-Index Edges Higher as Investors Stay Cautious Ahead of Potential Correction

Vietnam’s VN-Index edged higher as investors stayed cautious ahead of potential adjustment pressure, while trading remained choppy and liquidity softened.

Market close: VN-Index rises, HNX-Index slips

At the close, VN-Index rose 8.96 points, or 0.51%, to 1,758.96 points. By contrast, HNX-Index fell 1.97 points, or 0.1%, to 251.66 points.

VN-Index traded in a range of 1,733–1,766 before finishing at 1,758.96, up nearly 9 points from the previous session. Market breadth was fairly balanced with 9 out of 18 sectors higher; real estate led gains, followed by Communications.

Foreign flows turned negative, with net selling reported on HSX, HNX and UPCOM.

Cause and development: cautious liquidity and low consensus

Several securities firms noted that the market lacked consensus as it whipsawed within a wide band. Liquidity declined, suggesting investor sentiment remained cautious, even as the index held a constructive short-term structure.

SSI said the accumulation phase may continue, citing cautious liquidity and low diffusion.

Other commentary pointed to continued consolidation rather than a broad-based rally, with demand appearing at lower price levels. One view also highlighted that the intraday rise was supported by Vingroup, while selling pressure returned in the afternoon, narrowing gains.

Key technical levels and scenarios

VN-Index faces resistance around the MA50 near 1,770–1,785 points. BVSC cautioned that selling pressure could emerge in early sessions to test the upside gap from last week, or—under a more negative scenario—to test the MA200.

BVSC’s base case is that any decline should not be deep, with the market potentially re-establishing balance around 1,680–1,700 points.

Additional technical notes cited a short-term consolidation around 1,680 points, corresponding to the 200-day moving average, with resistance around 1,750 points. The VN30 index was also described as facing resistance around 1,950 points, with a breakout requiring further fundamental momentum.

One firm maintained a cautious near-term stance, noting the index closed below MA100 and MA50 for the day and that selling pressure around the MA100–MA50 area remained strong. It suggested monitoring support near 1,700–1,710, and indicated that a safer short-term buying point would be if the index closes above MA100 and confirms an upward move.

Data and flows: liquidity and rotation

Liquidity was described as improving versus the prior week by +5.3% in one set of notes, with money rotating into large-cap and real estate names. Another view, however, emphasized that liquidity had declined on the day, reinforcing a cautious tone.

Sector focus for potential trading opportunities included oil & gas, fertilizers, banks and retail/consumer-related themes, cited for positive Q1 earnings.

Impact and outlook: accumulation continues, but risks remain

Overall, the market trend was characterized as improving after a decline and rebound, supported by some large-cap stocks and real estate. At the same time, commentary warned that the market remains “not very attractive” and that there are limited good growth opportunities, with macro uncertainty also referenced.

Near-term expectations centered on resistance tests in the 1,770–1,800 area. One view suggested the index could stage a rebound when it tests strong support around 1,180, alongside observations that RSI is around 50 and MACD is at 0—signals consistent with consolidation and a potential retest of the 1,750 level before a possible breakout.

Strategy and risk management

Firms advised investors to maintain balanced equity/cash positions and to raise trailing stops to protect profits on short-term holdings.

Trading approaches mentioned included:

• Maintaining reasonable weightings and focusing on stocks with solid fundamentals, leaders in strategic sectors, and growth exceeding the economy.
• Considering opportunistic buys on dips while keeping a balanced risk posture.
• For a short-term horizon (less than one month), buying during pullbacks and gradually realizing profits as the index approaches 1,770–1,800.
• Keeping allocations “safe” and monitoring key support near 1,700–1,710 if selling pressure persists around MA100–MA50.

Disclaimer: Market commentary from various securities houses is provided for reference and may reflect conflicts of interest.