Vietnam targets two-digit GDP growth and a new global standing

On April 2, 2026, General Secretary and State President Tô Lâm signed Issuance No. 18-KL/TW on the Plan for socio-economic development, national finances, public debt repayment, and medium-term public investment for 2026–2030, linked to the target of achieving two-digit growth. The document translates the 14th National Party Congress Resolution into implementation priorities and sets out core objectives and specific criteria for the period.

Background and performance in 2021–2025

For 2021–2025, despite significant difficulties, Vietnam recorded “significant, comprehensive, and breakthrough” results. Average GDP growth reached 6.2% per year, with 2025 at 8.02%. Per capita GDP rose to 5,026 USD, placing Vietnam among upper-income economies. The issuance also notes that major macroeconomic balances were maintained, with inflation, budget deficits, and public debt kept under control.

It further highlights progress in addressing long-standing issues, including that many projects remained encumbered, enterprises suffered losses for extended periods, and weak credit institutions were addressed with results. Infrastructure development was accelerated, and the government apparatus was reorganized to be lean and efficient.

Two-digit growth target for 2026–2030

Conclusion No. 18-KL/TW frames the shift from aspiration to action by placing two-digit growth as a guiding direction for 2026–2030. It also candidly acknowledges limitations that still need to be addressed: macroeconomic foundations are not yet solid; productivity, quality, efficiency, and competitiveness remain insufficient; science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation contributions are limited; institutions and policies still have bottlenecks; and a portion of the population remains in hardship.

In this context, the Party’s Central Committee agrees to target average GDP growth of at least 10% per year in 2026–2030, while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major economic balances. By 2030, per capita GDP is targeted at 8,500 USD. Vietnam is expected to become a developing country with a modern industry and upper-middle income, and among the top 30 economies in the world by GDP size.

Key indicators and quantified targets

The issuance operationalizes the 2030 direction through a set of indicators, including:

• Share of processing and manufacturing in GDP: 28%
• Digital economy: 30% of GDP
• Green economy: 10% of GDP
• Average labor productivity growth: 8.5% per year
• Total factor productivity (TFP) contribution to growth: over 55%
• ICOR: reduced to 4.5–4.8
• Expressway completion: 1,655 km by 2030 (with over 5,000 km in use by 2030)

Compared with the previous period, the document describes these as a “leap” in growth requirements, reflecting the Party’s aspiration and determination to break through in the new development phase.

Four guiding breakthrough principles

The issuance sets out four breakthrough principles: leadership, decisive action, institutional breakthroughs, and safe and efficient investment.

1) Leadership and national solidarity

Ensure comprehensive leadership of the Party; leverage the State’s development-oriented role; strengthen social supervision and criticism; and mobilize participation from the political system, businesses, and people.

2) Determination and action

Pursue targets with resolute, decisive, flexible, and focused action; assess circumstances to overcome immediate difficulties and create mid-term breakthroughs.

3) Institutional reform and unlocking resources

Strengthen development institutions, promptly remove bottlenecks, unlock resources, deepen decentralization and delegation, and reform administrative procedures; enhance enforcement capacity.

4) Financial safety and investment efficiency

Ensure sustainable balances and national financial security; manage public debt tightly; raise investment efficiency in a targeted, focused way with broad spillover effects.

Implications for implementation

The document indicates a shift in development thinking: it does not only set high growth targets, but also directly addresses economic bottlenecks to balance fast growth with macro stability, development with social welfare, and progress with defense, security, and environmental protection.

Overall, No. 18-KL/TW sets the two-digit growth target for 2026–2030 and signals Vietnam’s development ambitions, innovative thinking, and political will to move into a new development phase—emphasizing that the objective is to achieve the target through strong, coherent, and effective solutions.