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Vietnam’s 2025 macro performance delivered a high and impressive growth rate of about 8.02%, but the underlying growth model still appears to rely heavily on traditional credit-based methods. The article argues that growth quality shows notable signs—particularly in total factor productivity (TFP)—and calls for a more systemic approach to generate a stronger growth effect.
On the digital economy, the article says it should not be treated as a separate economic sector. While policy directives were set in the Party Congress Resolution, the digital economy’s share in 2025 is reported at only 14.02%, well below the 20% target.
Instead, the digital economy should be viewed as “growth infrastructure,” providing the basis for the wider economy. The Vietnam Economic University’s 2025 Economic Assessment report is cited as indicating that the core digital economy accounts for about 60%, but that the real driving force comes from spillover effects across other sectors through diffusion effects and forward-backward linkages.
The article notes that reversing the structure toward 60% diffusion and 40% core will be difficult in the near term, so Vietnam should initially invest synchronously in core technology, semiconductors, and digital energy infrastructure.
The piece emphasizes an urgent need to shift thinking from “accumulating more resources” to “optimizing resources,” arguing that traditional resources are increasingly scarce and marginal effects are diminishing. It says Vietnam has resolutions for all sectors—including private and state sectors and FDI—but lacks coordinated alignment and a shared long-term vision.
In this context, institutions are described as the mechanism to connect resources together. Public investment is also framed differently: it should focus on diffusion effects and the ability to activate an innovation ecosystem.
The article discusses efforts to reach a two-digit growth rate in 2026, describing it as ambitious but grounded in the more than 8% result in 2025. It cites strong institutional precedents, including Politburo resolutions and the 14th Party Central Committee’s 18-KL/TW conclusions, but argues that the biggest challenge is execution rather than policy design.
It also highlights implementation delays and the risk of policy speed outpacing guidance. In 2025, 173 documents were released later than their effective dates. For 2026, nearly 90 new laws are expected to be enacted, and the article warns that without timely implementing decrees, economic opportunities may be missed.
Execution capacity is further illustrated by a “nervous” approach to approval: a VND 4 billion initiative for a digital innovation project was halted because the approving body did not know how to assess the value of lines of code.
On AI, the article says technology is moving too fast for traditional approaches. It notes that new AI systems are triggering “red alerts” on security in banking. While Vietnamese firms are described as dynamic, they are said to be concerned about job cuts and about the difficulty for small and medium-sized enterprises to hire high-tech talent.
Domestic firms are also described as facing disadvantages on home soil compared with multinational corporations due to high compliance costs.
To develop technology, the article calls for fewer and simpler policies—creating space for development before legislation. It proposes a “Light-touch regulation” approach that is supportive and allows experimentation.
For digital economy development, it argues that a sandbox mechanism can help connect the digital economy with innovation. It specifically calls for financial sandboxes for intellectual property assets to be used as collateral, and cross-border data transfer sandboxes in free-trade zones to avoid regulatory barriers.
At the same time, it warns against a “sandbox trap,” where testing is pursued slowly and legislation is delayed even when it could be enacted promptly.
The article says readiness for the digital economy remains uncertain despite rapid policy changes in the region. It cites that 48% of small and medium-sized enterprises stopped pursuing digital transformation solutions after the Covid-19 pandemic.
It also notes that while many contracts on digital platforms are being discussed, dispute resolution remains unclear.
The article frames the digital economy as applying digital technology effectively to change the growth model, describing it as a shared societal responsibility rather than the remit of a single agency.
Under Resolution 57-NQ/TW on breakthroughs in science and technology, it says the focus is on five pillars: institutions, human resources, infrastructure, data, and strategic technologies, with institutions leading the way. It adds that while policies are issued quickly, implementation is difficult, and it references work with ministries to advance sandbox models, including a low-altitude aviation economy in Dien Bien as a learning and replication case.
On data, it describes data as new production material, but says the key challenge is how to exploit data while balancing national security and economic development.
For strategic technology, it argues Vietnam must avoid low-value-added outsourcing and instead control and master the enumerated technologies. On coordination, it says there is no need for too many overlapping agencies, noting that the current governance structure already provides guidance from central leadership to local authorities, with the digital economy as a key link.
For real results, the article concludes that each ministry and sector must specify digital goals in action programs, establish periodic measurement mechanisms, and tie responsibility to leaders.
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