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Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) said the market has not yet fully priced in the high profit base from the Q1 2026 earnings season. In VDSC’s view, recent VN-Index movement has been driven largely by a small number of stocks with supportive narratives, while most stocks have already incorporated risks from slower growth tied to a prolonged energy shock and a high interest-rate environment. exchange rates today
VDSC said the current setup suggests the market is not short of earnings growth, but it lacks confidence in the durability of the earnings cycle. As a result, risk premia are expected to remain elevated after the Q1 earnings season, limiting the pace at which overall valuations can expand in line with disclosed profits.
Over the next three months, VDSC expects market performance to depend more on developments in the Middle East. The brokerage noted that geopolitical tensions may be approaching a cooling point in the medium term, though they have not been considered ended.
VDSC pointed to several factors shaping near-term oil risk pricing: clearer legal limits on the US president’s executive power, and Iran’s ability to influence the Hormuz Strait, which could force parties to reassess the costs of prolonging the conflict. The brokerage said the market has a basis to treat oil supply risk as urgent in the near term, but unlikely to persist indefinitely.
VDSC also highlighted that backwardation in oil prices—where the near-month price is lower than the distant-month price—does not indicate precisely when the war ends. Instead, it signals that expectations for geopolitical shocks can be managed or gradually eased.
VDSC identified the US–China summit as another key variable for the global economic order. The market, it said, needs signals of a more stable competitive framework between the two largest economies. If the meeting opens prospects for a new trade deal, reduces tariff risks, or supports stable energy flows through the Hormuz Strait, global sentiment could improve.
On the domestic front, VDSC cited Q1 2026 GDP growth of 7.83%, the highest for the period since 2011, but still below the government’s 9.1% growth scenario. With the National Assembly maintaining a 2026 target of at least 10% GDP growth, VDSC said the remaining quarters would need roughly 10%–11% growth per quarter to achieve the annual goal.
VDSC expects the near-term policy focus to prioritize boosting social investment, which would then feed into consumption and help unlock capital flows. Despite inflationary pressure from energy prices, it said the government still has fiscal space to keep CPI within the 4.5%–5% target range, and there is some room on the exchange rate to support credit, growth, and exports.
VDSC cautioned that a weakening trade balance could reduce room to stabilize the exchange rate. It also noted that a high interest-rate environment could slow credit growth or affect loan quality.
On the positive side, VDSC said external pressures should gradually normalize if inventory buildup eases and energy flows recover, which would support an improvement in the trade balance. Domestically, faster public investment disbursement is expected to be a key signal for injecting liquidity into the banking system.
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