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VNDirect Securities has released an updated market outlook report, revising its forecast for the VN-Index to end 2026 at 1,967 points—up 10.2% versus 2025. The new target remains below the 2,100-point level projected earlier in the year, reflecting external uncertainty risks.
VNDirect said 2026 is shaping up to be a watershed year for Vietnam’s stock market. The firm points to FTSE’s official upgrade of Vietnam’s market status in September 2026, alongside infrastructure improvements and structural reforms aimed at bringing the market closer to regional standards.
While external risks may drive short-term volatility, VNDirect argues that a stable macroeconomic backdrop and attractive valuations provide the foundation for the VN-Index to maintain an upward trend through 2026.
For 2026, VNDirect expects net profit forecasts for companies listed on HOSE to rise by about 14%. This is a reduction from the earlier Early-Year Strategy Report, which projected an 18% increase.
The broker said the adjustment mainly reflects tougher year-on-year comparisons, as Q4 2025 profits for many firms exceeded expectations.
VNDirect cited several factors underpinning the 2026 profit-growth outlook:
VNDirect noted that the global growth outlook for 2026–2027 faces pressure from geopolitical competition, inflation, and tightening financial conditions. The IMF revised down its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from its January 2026 projection, while still pointing to support from strong investment in technology and artificial intelligence.
For Vietnam, the IMF raised its real GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 7.1%, up 1.5 percentage points from the October 2025 projection. VNDirect linked the upgrade to the momentum of Asia’s technology exports and shifts in trade amid global supply-chain restructuring.
In addition, Moody’s upgraded Vietnam’s sovereign credit outlook to “positive” while maintaining the Ba2 rating, which VNDirect said reinforces a positive view of macro fundamentals and the medium-term growth outlook.
Global inflation is projected to rise again in the near term before easing from 2027, mainly due to higher energy prices, raw materials, and transportation costs. For Vietnam, VNDirect said this could increase manufacturing input costs and put upward pressure on inflation.
At the same time, global financial conditions are expected to remain relatively tight. VNDirect said international interest rates are likely to stay high for longer, continuing to pressure the exchange rate, the cost of capital, and Vietnam’s monetary policy space in the near term.
VNDirect added that the Fed’s near-term policy direction is likely to remain tilted toward price stability rather than early growth support. It also referenced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell, noting that he may be confirmed by the Senate in May.
Against this backdrop, VNDirect said the USD interest-rate level is likely to stay high, maintaining pressure on the VND exchange rate and on the policy space available to Vietnam’s monetary authorities in the coming quarters.
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