Why Vietnam's gold price is higher than world prices by about 24 million dong per tael

As of 5:45 p.m. on April 12, Saigon Jewelry Joint Stock Company (SJC) quoted gold bar prices at around 169.4–172.4 million dong per tael (buying–selling), unchanged from the previous day. Other brands including Bao Tin Minh Chau, Bao Tin Manh Hai and Phu Quy also kept gold bar prices at 169.4–172.4 million dong per tael (buy–selling).

Gold jewelry prices also held steady. SJC jewelry was quoted at 169.1–172.1 million dong per tael (buy–selling). Bao Tin Minh Chau and Phu Quy quoted 169.2–172.2 million dong per tael, slightly lower than the previous day, while Bao Tin Manh Hai quoted gold jewelry at 169.4–172.4 million dong per tael, unchanged.

Domestic gold vs. world price: the gap is about 24 million dong per tael

World gold is currently quoted at around 4,748 USD per ounce, equivalent to a little over 148 million dong per tael. Based on these figures, the difference between domestic and world gold prices is roughly 24 million dong per tael.

Why domestic gold prices stay higher

Experts cited several factors behind the higher domestic gold price compared with the world market. The key reason is that domestic gold bar supply remains limited while demand for safe-haven assets is still high. They also pointed to additional contributors such as exchange rate effects, logistics costs, and profit margins of gold traders.

In an environment where investors continue to seek hedging, companies tend to keep prices higher to manage volatility.

Outlook: could gold rise next week?

This week’s domestic market was influenced by developments in the Middle East conflict. Gold prices surged on April 8–9 and even exceeded 4,800 USD per ounce after the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. After that, prices eased and traded in a range of 4,700–4,800 USD per ounce during the remaining sessions.

At week’s end, a Kitco News poll of bankers, analysts and investors showed a relatively optimistic outlook. The survey results indicated 50% expect gold prices to rise next week, 14% expect prices to fall, and 36% expect the market to move sideways.

Expert views

Rich Checkan, President of Asset Strategies International, said gold has been sold off too much recently and expects prices to continue rising, targeting 5,000 USD per ounce and higher. He added that if the U.S.–Iran ceasefire proves fragile, prices could drop, and a short-term sell-off could occur if market liquidity falls.

Analyst Aakash Doshi said there is a 50% chance gold will trade in the range of 4,750–5,500 USD per ounce for the remainder of the year. He also noted: “We have reduced the probability of the upside scenario to 5,500–6,250 USD/ounce from 35% to 30%. But support in the $4,000–4,100 USD/ounce range will hold as a floor.”

Darin Newsom, a market analyst at Barchart.com, argued that prices may fall in the near term as gold futures approach a peak.

Next week’s data calendar

Next week, investors may not see too much key economic data, including the Producer Price Index, March existing home sales, and weekly initial jobless claims.