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Bernstein analysts trimmed their price target on IREN from $125 to $100 per share on Monday while reaffirming the stock as their top pick among AI-focused Bitcoin miners. The firm said the company is rapidly transforming into a superscale AI cloud provider and expects IREN will fully wind down crypto mining operations in the coming years.
Bernstein said the target reduction stems from two items not tied to IREN’s AI prospects: a scaling back of Bitcoin mining and an increase in shares outstanding following recent equity issuances. The analysts emphasized that these changes do not reflect any deterioration in the company’s AI ambitions.
At the center of Bernstein’s bull case is a major contract with Microsoft. IREN has contracted 77,000 of its 150,000 GPUs to Microsoft under a five-year agreement tied to roughly $1.94 billion in annualized revenue. The remaining GPU capacity is being marketed to on-demand cloud customers, with $400 million in contracts already signed as of February.
To fund the buildout, IREN entered a $5.8 billion purchase agreement with Dell for Nvidia GB300 processors and secured $3.6 billion in GPU-backed financing at an interest rate below 6%. Bernstein said that, combined with Microsoft prepayments, the arrangement covers roughly 95% of the capital needed for the Microsoft contract.
Bernstein projects that IREN’s AI cloud revenues will reach $2.6 billion in 2027 and rise to $6 billion by 2030. By 2030, the company expects to operate a fleet of 275,000 GPUs, up from 150,000 today. The analysts forecast adjusted EBITDA margins to stabilize near 82% at scale, implying nearly $5 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by the end of the decade.
Bernstein pointed to IREN’s 4.5 gigawatts of power holdings across sites in Texas, British Columbia, and Oklahoma as a foundation for growth. The firm valued IREN’s 3.6 gigawatts of undeveloped capacity in Sweetwater and Oklahoma at $3 million per megawatt, contributing roughly $10.8 billion to its sum-of-the-parts valuation.
In the updated model, Bernstein assigned Bitcoin mining a value of zero. The analysts expect IREN to continue replacing mining hardware with GPU racks as it repurposes existing infrastructure for cloud workloads. Bernstein projected that mining revenue will fall sharply in the coming years before reaching zero in fiscal year 2030.
Bernstein noted that many other prominent Bitcoin mining firms have also moved toward AI opportunities, with some even abandoning crypto mining altogether amid the AI boom.
IREN shares recently traded at $43.78, down more than 9% on the day amid a broader AI-related stock rout tied to a report of OpenAI underperformance. Over the last month, IREN shares have risen by nearly 25%. At the current price, Bernstein’s $100 target implies approximately 128% upside for investors.
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