Bitcoin steady as S&P 500 hits record, but options market isn't buying the peace trade

Bitcoin neared $75,000 as U.S. equities hit record highs, with investors reacting to reports of an in-principle U.S.-Iran agreement to extend cease-fire talks beyond April 7. Despite the spot-led rally, crypto derivatives markets are signaling caution, while ether’s outperformance is adding a separate layer of risk to how both tokens may trade in the next risk-off session.

Cause: Cease-fire talks and record equity momentum

Bitcoin climbed to $74,935 in Asian hours Thursday, up 0.7% over 24 hours and 5.4% on the week. The move coincided with U.S. stocks closing at record highs after reports that the U.S. and Iran reached an in-principle agreement to extend negotiations past next week’s April 7 ceasefire expiry.

In equities, the S&P 500 finished up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, both at all-time highs, extending a two-week rally that began from late March lows.

Development: Derivatives point to a bounce, not a durable trend

While spot markets have rallied, derivatives desks are not showing the same level of conviction. QCP Capital said in a Wednesday Telegram broadcast that bitcoin’s rally appears spot-led rather than part of broader re-risking.

QCP highlighted that bitcoin perpetual funding rates remain negative and open interest has softened, suggesting shorts are leaning against the move rather than capitulating. At the same time, front-end implied volatility is muted, one-month volatility is trading below three-month, and 30-day 25-delta risk reversals still indicate more demand for downside protection than upside exposure.

In practical terms, options pricing for bitcoin expiring over the next few weeks is unusually calm for a “real breakout,” and traders are paying more for protection against a decline than for additional upside. QCP characterized this as the signature of a bounce rather than a trend change.

Data and market context

• Bitcoin: $74,935; +0.7% (24 hours); +5.4% (week)
• Ether: $2,360; +8.1% (week)
• Major equities: S&P 500 +0.8%; Nasdaq 100 +1.4% (both all-time highs)
• Treasuries and commodities: Long-end Treasury yields barely moved; gold held near $4,800; Brent crude ticked up to $95

QCP also noted that the core risk remains unresolved. The firm pointed to a structural gap between Iran’s 60% enriched uranium and the U.S. demand for below 20%, arguing that a framework headline cannot close that difference.

Impact: Ether’s outperformance raises the stakes

Ether is outperforming bitcoin, a signal that QCP said cannot be explained by bitcoin-specific flows. The ETH/BTC ratio climbed to roughly 0.0315 on Wednesday, recovering from February 2026 lows near 0.028 and marking the first sustained stretch of ether strength against bitcoin in months.

Ethereum’s on-chain activity and stablecoin supply have also strengthened. Network transactions reached a record 200.4 million in Q1, and stablecoin supply hit an all-time high of $180 billion.

Analysis: What to watch next before the April 7 deadline

Traders may look to the next risk-off session for confirmation. QCP suggested that if ether holds up better than bitcoin on a red day, it would support the idea that capital is rotating into riskier assets. A sharper slide in ether would instead indicate it is simply tracking bitcoin’s higher beta.

Market participants are also watching whether the U.S.-Iran framework survives negotiations involving the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program ahead of next week’s ceasefire expiry. QCP’s view was that this is headline relief rather than resolution, and said that is the first point worth stress-testing.

Commentary from markets strategist

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, wrote that “stocks are basically expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is all but over.”