Oil price forecast: supply disruptions and geopolitics keep prices elevated

Crude oil remains range-bound as supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions keep a risk premium in place, while mixed macroeconomic signals add to uncertainty. Ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations are also keeping the market volatile, with no clear direction yet.

Oil prices consolidate amid Strait of Hormuz and supply risks

Oil prices have been consolidating in the $40 range as investors weigh geopolitical risks against disruptions to supply. Market participants are awaiting developments in U.S. talks with Iran, with hopes that the conflict may be resolved. However, the facts on the ground suggest that supply flows remain well below normal, sustaining a risk premium and keeping prices within a broad $80 to $120 range.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key factor. Diplomatic efforts have not fully resolved the issue because part of the strait does not operate. Reduced traffic through the Strait indicates that supply lines have not completely reopened.

In addition, the U.S. blockade on Iran’s ability to ship goods has severely limited trade. The article also notes that cumulative supply losses across the Middle East have reached substantial levels. Together, these shocks are expected to continue constraining global supply balances and supporting current price levels even as diplomatic conditions improve.

Some tankers have begun transiting the region, but the recovery is described as slow. The market is not pricing a complete shutdown; instead, it reflects uncertainty. As a result, prices remain elevated even as the risk of a total collapse in supply is reduced.

Macro factors and demand outlook add volatility

Beyond supply, macroeconomic variables are influencing the oil market’s outlook. The U.S. decision to refuse to renew waivers on Russian and Iranian oil imports is described as adding pressure to world supply.

The article also points to potential changes in monetary policy, which could affect inflation expectations and economic stability. Rising oil costs are already contributing to inflation concerns and supply-chain disruptions.

At the same time, growth-oriented policies—such as the possibility of interest rate cuts—could increase future demand for oil. This creates a mixed picture in which supply risks and demand expectations reinforce volatility.

In the short term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile as long as supply disruptions persist. The article adds that any established solution to the Middle East conflict could relieve prices quickly, but until then the market is likely to fluctuate based on headlines and shifting expectations.

WTI and Brent technical picture highlights range and key levels

For WTI, the short-term price action is described as strong consolidation within the $80 to $120 range. The article cites a peak on 9 March 2026 at $120, followed by a drop back below $80. It also notes that a rally to a high again on 7 April was followed by another decline, reinforcing the view that the energy market remains highly volatile and that the next move may be uncertain depending on U.S.–Iran negotiations.

For Brent crude, the article describes a bullish structure, noting that the price has broken above the $90 area, previously resistance tied to a descending broadening wedge pattern. It identifies $90 as immediate support for Brent, stating that a break below $90 could move prices toward the $81 region.

The article also suggests prices are likely to rebound from the $80 to $85 zone and continue higher, with Brent’s next move expected to depend largely on the outcome of the U.S.–Iran talks.

Bottom line

Crude oil is being driven by a balance between supply shocks and macroeconomic changes. With supply flows still below normal, a risk premium remains in the market. Pending tensions and policy choices continue to add uncertainty to both supply and demand, while the technical structure points to consolidation within a broader bullish trend. The next phase is described as hinging on the results of U.S.–Iran negotiations; without visible improvement, prices are likely to keep fluctuating within a wide range.