BitMEX Proposes Quantum Canary Fund as Alternative to Bitcoin Freeze

BitMEX Research has proposed a bounty-based “canary fund” aimed at the ongoing debate over how to respond to potential quantum threats to Bitcoin’s cryptography. Under the plan, coin freezes would be triggered only if someone actually demonstrates that quantum computing can crack Bitcoin’s security.

How the canary works

BitMEX’s system would create a special Bitcoin address using what cryptographers describe as a “Nothing-Up-My-Sleeve Number”—an address for which no one knows the private key, but which a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically compromise.

Anyone could donate BTC to this address as a bounty. The rationale is that if quantum computers become capable of stealing Bitcoin, a rational actor would attempt to drain the honeypot first. The moment someone spends from the canary address, the proposal says it would serve as proof of the threat and automatically activate protective freezes.

Until any spending occurs, the old coins remain spendable. Bounty contributors would be able to withdraw at any time using multisignature arrangements.

Response to BIP-361

The proposal comes as a response to BIP-361, introduced Tuesday by Jameson Lopp and other developers. BIP-361 suggested freezing dormant quantum-vulnerable coins after a five-year migration window.

Community reaction to BIP-361 was described as harsh, with critics calling it “authoritarian” and “confiscatory.” Lopp later walked back expectations, describing BIP-361 as a “rough sketch” rather than activation-ready code. On X Wednesday, he wrote: “I know folks don't like it. I don't like it myself. I wrote it because I like the alternative even less.”

Quantum timeline and vulnerable holdings

The Bitcoin Policy Institute warned last week that quantum advances may be compressing the timeline for network upgrades. It cited estimates from researchers suggesting cryptographically relevant quantum computers could emerge between 2029 and 2035.

BitMEX also framed the issue around the estimated 25% of BTC held in quantum-vulnerable addresses. At current prices cited in the article—$74,576—those coins are valued at roughly $368 billion.

Complexity versus controversy

BitMEX acknowledged that its approach adds technical complexity. It said the canary watch state would still allow quantum-vulnerable transactions after BIP-361’s proposed five-year deadline, but with outputs locked for a safety period.

“While this approach adds complexity and risk, given how controversial any coin freeze is, mitigating the impact of the freeze using this type of system may be worth consideration,” BitMEX Research said.

Impact and debate ahead

BitMEX’s proposal shifts the focus from whether to prepare for quantum threats to whether the Bitcoin community can reach consensus on a solution before the threat materializes. With the article citing about $368 billion in potentially vulnerable coins and no clear quantum timeline, the decision-making process is likely to remain contentious.