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Bank of America raised its rating on Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI) to “Buy” from “Neutral,” citing improvements in service, stronger-than-expected volume growth, and an attractive valuation versus peers.
The firm also increased its price target on Canada’s largest freight railway to US$122 from US$117, implying upside from current levels of about US$110.
In a note to clients, Bank of America pointed to volume results that exceeded expectations. The analysts said revenue ton miles were up 3% Q1 to date versus the firm’s 0.5% target, and above CPKC’s 1.2% Q1 to date. They also reported carloads up 1.7%, above the prior 0.2% target.
Bank of America said these results are ahead of Canadian National’s flat full-year target, supported by record Canadian grain shipments and above-target intermodal and auto volumes.
On service, the firm credited operational gains to newly appointed COO Patrick Whitehead. It noted that average velocity is up 6.7% year-over-year, well ahead of the group average 3% increase.
Bank of America identified grain and fertilizers as key drivers of volume growth, stating revenue ton miles in these categories were up 13% year-over-year versus the firm’s prior 6% target. It also said intermodal volumes rose 4% versus the prior -1% target.
Despite the upside, the analysts cautioned that volume fundamentals could decelerate in the second quarter due to mix impacts, fuel surcharges, and the absence of carbon tax revenues.
Bank of America said Canadian National shares trade at a discount to peers, implying room for upside. It cited a 3-turn discount to peers, with 18x versus a peer average of 21x, which it attributed to operating misses over the past few years.
The firm also highlighted additional potential from Canadian National’s $3 billion buyback program.
Bank of America increased earnings estimates modestly, projecting first-quarter and full-year 2026 EPS at C$1.77 and C$7.80, respectively, up from prior forecasts of C$1.74 and C$7.75.
The raised price target reflects 21.5 times expected 2026 earnings per share, up from 20.5 times previously.
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